Grizzlies vs Pistons NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/5)

Cade Cunnigham and Ja Morant are two of the most exciting young guards in the NBA. Unfortunately, they’re in opposite conferences so this is a rare matchup. Fortunately, we get it tonight and there are massive playoff implications on both sides. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Little Caesars Arena Detroit, MI
• Memphis Grizzlies (45-32) visit the Detroit Pistons (43-34)
• Previous Matchup: MEM 131-11 November 27th, 2024
• Neither Cade Cunningham or Ja Morant played in the previous matchup.

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Memphis Grizzlies @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit bounced back against the Raptors without Cade. Before that, they had lost back-to-back games to tough Western Conference foes in the Thunder and Timberwolves. Tonight they face another tough test from out west. Detroit is 6-4 in their last ten but they should have their superstar back in the lineup tonight. The Pistons face an uphill battle for the fourth seed and they have the Bucks nipping at their heels from sixth place.

The Pistons are 21-16 at home and 22-18 on the road. Meaning, this team is just as good at home and on the road which is the marker of a team that executes and doesn’t rely on talent or the home crowd. Though I am sure that 2nd ranked fast break offence likes the roar of the Motown faithful.

The Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins in a shocking move that I am sure will be revisited several times in the Summer. They’ll finish out the rest of the season with Finnish coach Tuomas Iisalo. The Grizzlies are 3-7 in their last ten but are also coming off a victory like their opponents. Ja Morant hit the game winner to sink the Heat on Thursday.

Cade Cunningham and the No. 5 in East Pistons (0.5 games ahead of 6th-seed MIL) host Ja Morant and the No. 8 in West Grizzlies (1 GB of 5th-seed GSW) with key seeding implications tonight at 7:00pm/et on NBA TV! pic.twitter.com/fWcANxX5lx

— NBA (@NBA) April 5, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Memphis is 1-3 with their new coach and had it not been for Ja Morant’s heroics they’d be winless. Those first three losses were at home and now they are on the second game of a three game Eastern conference road trip. If Memphis wants to win this one then they’ll need that second ranked scoring offence to do its thing.

Ja Morant last eight games:

30.9 PPG
7.0 APG
1.5 SPG
55/39%

On fire. pic.twitter.com/klG4yYdKnP

— StatMuse (@statmuse) April 4, 2025

Detroit is not an elite defence. They are 18th to 3-point % allowed and are outside of the top ten in steals and blocks. Memphis has fantastic shooters that can take advantage of the soft perimeter defence of Detroit. Additionally, Memphis is 4th in 2nd chance points and Detroit is only 17th at defending them.

However, they bring the effort and keep teams to 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio which is tied for third best in the association. Detroit also does defend the paint well as they are ranked 4th in opponent points in the paint.

The Pistons could win this game in one very simple way. The fast break. Cade Cunningham, Thompson, and Beasley are all great in that respect. Detroit has the 2nd best fast break in the association. The put up 18.9 points per game and they’ll face the 22nd ranked fast break defence tonight. Moreover, Memphis is also 17th in 3-point % allowed and 24th in 2nd chance points.

Conclusively, both of these teams have glaring defensive weaknesses while having great offences lead by All-NBA level lead guards. This should be a great basketball game.

Outlier.Bet Key Insights

• The Detroit Pistons are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defences.
• The over hit in 13 of the Pistons last 19 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defences.
• Detroit is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defences.

NBA Best Bet: Cade Cunningham o1.5 Threes (-120)

Lead guards have been shooting the lights out against Memphis. Jrue Holiday and Tyler Herro Both hit 4 recently, Curry had 12, and Austin Reaves hit 5. Someone from Detroit is going to hit more threes than usual. Only two threes for Cade feels comfortable. He is one of the most ball dominant guards in the league in a game with a insanely high total.

The top 5 in Ball Dominance%

1. Trae Young 48%
2. Jalen Brunson 47%
3. Cade Cunningham 46%
4. LaMelo Ball 41%
5. James Harden 41%

This is the % of time a player has the ball on offense

— BBall Index (@The_BBall_Index) April 4, 2025

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