Grizzlies vs Cavaliers NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (2/23)

The boys in Beale Street Blue continue their road trip visiting Cleveland for a Sunday night NBA matchup. Can Ja Morant and company steal one on the road or is The Land safe with D Mitch and his crew? High total. This should be fun.

Game Information

• Rocket Arena Cleveland, OH
• Memphis Grizzlies (37-19) visit the (46-10) Cleveland Cavaliers
• Previous Matchup: CLE Win 110-98 April 10th, 2024

Memphis Grizzlies @ Cleveland Cavaliers

The Memphis Grizzlies aren’t struggling to the fullest extent of the word. Except they are 6-4 in their last 10 while surrendering 119.3 points per game. Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to be their leading scorer, but they will need his signature defence tonight. They are ending a five game road trip where they’ve gone 2-2. This team has been OK but they see themselves as great. They’ll likely come ready to play in an effort to finish this trip above .500.

Not enough attention is being paid to Jaren Jackson’s ascension this season

He’s taking fewer shots than a season ago (16.7 vs. 17.6), but making more of them (8.3 vs. 7.8)

Per @The_BBall_Index, JJJ is #1 in floater talent this season

📹 @BrysonWright3pic.twitter.com/If4jpOV6cU

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) February 21, 2025

Impressively, Cleveland has won 6 straight and 9 of 10 and the Cavaliers are the East’s first seed. Playing on their court is tough. They are 26-4 inside of Rocket Arena. This squad has a deep bench and four All-Star calibre starters. Beating this team takes talent and execution at a championship level. They Grizzlies haven’t played on that level as of late. So, this is Cleveland’s game to lose.

NBA Game Analysis

These two teams are tied for the lead in the association for points per game at 122.8. Both teams play at a top 5 pace and land within the top ten of efficiency categories. Whoever wins this one will likely be the team that tightens the screws defensively. This will be an interesting test as these two teams haven’t played each other since April 2024.

The Grizzlies have a top ten defensive rating but they have been bleeding points in their last 10. They are finally healthy and their rotations are somewhat in flux. Taylor Jenkins is tinkering. Tonight’s rotation should be interesting to see because these kinds of games allow you to measure yourself against the elite. We should see playoff rotations from both teams.

Unfortunately for Ja Morant and company, the Grizzlies are 0-5 against the spread playing top ten scoring defences. Additionally, they are 12-25 in their last 37 games as an underdog. However, this is the Cavaliers third game in four nights since the All-Star break where they had their stars participating in the weekend. If Memphis can find a second wind and they get lucky with tired legs then they have a chance. A slim one.

Memphis is a great at offensive rebounding (2nd), second chance points (2nd), and points in the paint (2nd). Their style of play lends itself to stealing road wins. Furthermore, Cleveland is a 18th in opponent 3-point percentage. The Grizzlies shoot that shot at the 7th best clip in the league.

Nothing’s safe when @evanmobley‘s around. 🤧 #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/332bnESK5H

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) February 22, 2025

Recipe for Disaster?

For Cleveland, the game plan stays the same as every other night. Protect the paint and control the basketball. Cleveland forces teams into poor assist-to-turnover ratios and the Grizzlies are 29th in turnovers. They let the ball go 15.8 times per game. They are also a very poor team at defending the fast break giving up 16.7 points per game (29th). Cleveland gets 8.4 steals per game (11th). If the Grizzlies aren’t careful they’ll get run off the floor with Clevelands insanely efficient offence getting too many possessions.

NBA Best Bet: Evan Mobley o31.5 PRA (-120)

Mobley has broken out and it is that simple. He faces a tough test in Jaren Jackson Jr. tonight. One of the few bigs in the league that can match his agility at their size. Except, Evan has hit this line in 8 of his last ten as well as five straight. I am a huge fan of his game. When these two teams played last year Mobley has just 25 PRA but now he’s a different player.

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