Clippers vs Nuggets NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (5/3)

An NBA Game Seven on a Saturday night in the association. The Los Angeles Clippers try to extend their impressive season and make it to Round Two for the first time since 2021. Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets hope to advance out of the opening round for the third consecutive season. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Ball Arena – Denver, CO
• #5 Los Angeles Clippers visit the #4 Denver Nuggets
• Previous Matchup: LAC 111-105, May 5th, 2005
• Series is tied at 3-3

The Beard has been fierce in these playoffs.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Denver Nuggets

Game Six was fantastic as both teams exchanged their best shots. The stars were bright, the role players did their jobs, and both teams defended at a high level. In the end, Ty Lue and his Clippers got the job done and that’s why we are here.

The Clippers struggled from beyond the arc but made up for it by finishing at the rim and in the paint. Kawhi, Harden, and Powell all shot over 50% from the field for the game.

Conversely, Nikola Jokic’s body language continues to deteriorate. This team looks so different every single night. In Game Six you saw why the Joker is starting to lose it. The Nuggets commited a total of 14 turnovers in the game to just 7 by LA. Additionally, the Clippers conceded 10 points off their turnovers while Denver conceded 23. Denver actually won the rebounding battle, shot better from the field, and scored more in the paint. Unfortunately, Denver’s mistakes weren’t something they were able to overcome.

Also, quick shoutout to Nicolas Batum. He was on the fringes of the rotation all year but came away with one of the best performances of his veteran career. In 34 minutes, the Frenchman amassed 2 threes, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocked shots. Ty Lue might lean on his veteran again as the rotation went away from Kris Dunn last game. Dunn recorded just 10 minutes in Game Six.

[via NBA.com]

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NBA Game Analysis

The Clipper’s path to victory is ‘The Klaw.’ All the drama, rest, and headlines — they’ve been for this. To keep Kawhi Leonard healthy for when the basketball actually matters. Leonard is averaging 25.5 points per game on 54.5% shooting from the field. He also recorded a double-double, staving off elimination, and committing only 1 turnover to his 5 assists. He was his old cyborg-self.

Furthermore, Kawhi Leonard has averages of 22.9 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 10 games in elimination games in his career. His last 5 elimination games include two double-doubles as well as two forty point performances. He did have a 14 point 27.3% FG effort in a elimination game in 2020. However, that was in the bubble and it’s been well documented that those Clippers desperately wanted out of “The Bubble.”

Kawhi Leonard this postseason:

25.5 PPG
8.0 RPG
5.2 APG
1.8 STL + BLK
62.8% TS pic.twitter.com/GvIbSvQD09

— Real Sports (@realapp_) May 2, 2025

Denver’s season has been rough so will their season end in similar fashion? It doesn’t get much worse than getting upset in Game Seven on your own floor. The Nuggets need to keep things simple tonight. Get out in transition, do not allow the Clippers defence to set every possession as you walk the ball up, and you’ll have a chance. However, they need to take care of the basketball. During the regular season the Nuggets were tied for the third best assist-to-turnover ration in the NBA. So, they have the ability.

Run, Joker, Run!

Denver was the best team in the regular season on the break. They averaged 20.1 points per game as it was a real weapon for this offence. In Game Six, they had only 12. LA has the fourth ranked scoring defence allowing just 108.2 points per game. This is an aspect of their game that’s been missing in the playoffs. Tonight? If the Nuggets want to win they’ll have to run. Make these older legs deal with the altitude by making the pace unbearable.

The one worry here is that the Clippers will just force turnovers if Denver isn’t careful when trying to speed things up. Jokic is doing everything he can but this team is banged up and lacking depth. One way to equalize the talent disparity in the matchup is to just try and run the older opponent off the floor.

🃏 JOKIĆ x WILT 🃏

Joker through 6 games this playoffs:

152 PTS | 71 REB | 63 AST

The only other player to reach those totals through the first 6 games of a postseason?

WILT CHAMBERLAIN in 1967 🤯 pic.twitter.com/t4m0vzurU8

— NBA (@NBA) May 3, 2025

Check out our Championship odds piece!

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• Norman Powell has failed to exceed 21.5 PRA in 5 straight games on the road. This isn’t to say he won’t play well tonight. It just needs to be noted that Stormin’ Norman lives the friendly confines of the Intuit Dome a little more.
• Nicolas Batum has failed to exceed 1.5 assists in 13 of his last 16 games but he’s hit in 3 of his last 4 games. He really came through when this team needed him and the minutes he got last game might stay with him if they don’t revert back to Kris Dunn.
• Russell Westbrook has exceeded 16.5 points & rebounds in 8 straight games at home. He has a player option so his future with the franchise is in question. He won’t want to go out with a whimper considering all the criticism he’s faced these past few years.
• Michael Porter Jr. has exceeded 16.5 PRA in 18 of his last 19 games at home but he’s still dealing with a bad shoulder so be weary.

NBA Best Bet: Clippers ML (+105)

Listen, I know it is Nikola Jokic but their season has just been so messy. The Clippers won 50 games back-to-back seasons as well as introducing the Intuit Dome to the NBA. They failed to secure home court as the season ended but they were top 4 for most of the season. Kawhi has been so elite as well as Harden, Norm, and Zubac. I think they get it done on the road today.

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