Clippers vs Nuggets NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/19)

These two franchises have become very familiar the last few NBA seasons. Now, LA enters this series as the 5th seed. They’ll face not only a beastly Jokic, but also Denver’s home court advantage & altitude throughout this first round. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Ball Arena Denver, CO
• Los Angeles Clippers (50-32) visit the Denver Nuggets (50-32)
• Previous Matchup: DEN 126-103 January 8th

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Los Angeles Clippers @ Denver Nuggets

The Los Angeles Clippers were arguably a top 5 team post All-Star break. They were elite on both sides of the basketball as they piled up wins. James Harden continued his playoff streak and Kawhi Leonard looks as healthy as ever despite being 33-years-old and missing a lot of games.

The home team comes into this one having changed up the narrative on themselves. Unhappy with being seen as underachievers ownership cleared out both head coach and general manager. All of a sudden, Denver has a little swagger, and Nikola Jokic might actually win NBA MVP.

They split the series this year while also having identical records in their respective 50-win seasons. The LA Clippers won the first two but they haven’t played since early January when Denver won. It is safe to say neither team has played the oppositions true playoff iteration of themselves. There will be a feeling out period in this series.

The Nuggets want to return to a championship calibre team. The Clippers want to be mentioned in that tier as well. This should be a hotly contested series of two teams trying to prove it.

The Clippers last made it out of round one in 2021 when they made it to the Western Conference Finals. They eventually lost the Phoenix Suns in six games. Conversely, the Nuggets won it all in 2023 and their core 4 remains the same. Can Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook propel them into contender status? This should be a great series. In my opinion, we could see six or maybe seven games.

NBA Game Analysis

As good as the Clippers have been they still surprisingly finished under .500 on the road. The Intuit Dome provides a unique home court advantage. Teams struggle to shoot from beyond the arc and from the line. Except, the Clippers finished 20-21 on the road.

The Clippers path to victory every night in this series is their defence. They stop the break and defend 2nd chance points well. They’ll also need to keep Jokic out of the paint. Ty Lue will try to control the pace and limit how much Jokic has the ball. Denver is very good at home so LA will need their defence to steal a few games.

Denver is good but not great. The Denver Nuggets are 7-15 against the spread in their last 22 games. Meaning, they let teams hang around even when they win.

Denver has the 24th ranked scoring defence allowing opponents to score 116.9 points per game. That’s more than LA’s offence averages in general. If you like the Mile High City think about taking game overs or just Jokic overs. This series could be filled with players throwing down giant boxscores if Denver comes out on top.

THE CLIPPERS DYNAMIC DUO HAS BEEN ON FIRE THE LAST 8 GAMES 🔥👊

Kawhi: 26.5 PPG I 6.5 RPG I 52.9 FG%
Harden: 25.1 PPG I 9.5 APG I 50.0 FG%

8 straight wins to end the regular season… their #NBAPlayoffs presented by Google run starts tomorrow vs. Denver at 3:30pm/et on ESPN! pic.twitter.com/67yt7gchgO

— NBA (@NBA) April 18, 2025

Clippers Upset?

In the month of April The Klaw returned to the association for real. The Clippers went 6-0 in the games he played and he averaged 36.0 minutes in those games. Furthermore, he put up 26.7 points on fantastic shooting splits. Namely, 50% from three on 2.7 makes per game in the month. Michael Porter Jr. and Denver’s perimeter defenders will have their hands full.

Also, Ivica Zubac. Leonard has returned and Harden deserves a lot of the credit for the Clippers winning games. However, Zubac deserves just as much praise. The European big is an efficient finisher, good post passer, and intelligent at executing defensive game plans. You don’t stop Jokic you slow him. Zubac could slow the Joker by a millisecond which is still something.

Check out our Championship odds piece!

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• Peyton Watson has exceeded 3.5 RA in 11 of his last 14 games with a 5.4 RA average. He could possibly see more run as they could use his defence in several matchups.
• Ivica Zubac has exceeded 29.5 PR in 4 of his last 5 games with 35.4 PR average. Zubac will see plenty of run in this series against Jokic.
• James Harden has gone over 7.5 assists in 6 of his last 7 games vs. bottom 10 defences for assists allowed while averaging 11.1 assists in those games. Denver’s defence is not very good and Harden could have a great time setting up Clippers shooters.

NBA Best Bet: Game Total o224.0 (-110)

The over hit in 26 of the Denver Nuggets last 39 games at home. Their new coach likely had no times to instil any new defensive philosophies. Consequently, Jokic and company likely deploy that elite fast break offence against an older Clippers roster. However, the Clippers have 3 players who can score 30 easily and a guy who can get you 20 and 20. What does all that mean? I’m taking the over in the Mile High City.

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