Cavaliers vs. Pacers NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (5/11)

Sunday night action in the NBA! The 2025 Eastern Conference Semis continue as the Cavaliers try to even the series with the Pacers. Cleveland has the opportunity to steal back home court advantage in this series with a win tonight. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Gainbridge Fieldhouse – Indianpolis, IND
• #1 Cleveland Cavaliers visit #4 Indiana Pacers
• Previous Matchup: CLE 126-104, May 9th, 2025
• Indiana leads the Series at 2-1

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers

The Cleveland Cavaliers responded in a big way in Game Three. They did not let the hostile environment disturb their play in the slightest. After a 32-32 opening quarter they dominated the next frame. The Cavs outscored the Pacers 34-13 in the 2nd quarter. After that? They never looked back. Despite a late push from Rick Carlisle’s squad it wasn’t really in question.

Kenny Atkinson left his starters in and their biggest lead was 26 with their longest run being 11-0. The game was tied three times but the Pacers never held a lead in all 48 minutes. The scary thing for the Pacers is that Cleveland’s attack from three still isn’t where it was during the regular season. The Cavaliers shot 29.8% from beyond the arc in  Game Three while shooting it 38.3% during the regular season.

NBA Game Analysis

Cleveland showed last game they can win in different ways. They are an excellent shooting team but last game they won the battle in the paint as well as on the glass. One could argue they won on talent and size alone. I wouldn’t argue against that. Their game plan should be the same here. Crash, crash, crash. Eventually, their touch from distance will return. Fortunately, there’s no need to panic because their superstar is carrying them.

Donovan Mitchell in series vs. Pacers:

⭐ Game 1: 33 PTS | 5 REB | 4 AST
⭐ Game 2: 48 PTS | 5 REB | 9 AST
⭐ Game 3: 43 PTS | 9 REB | 5 AST

He’s averaging 31.3 PPG this postseason 🔥

What will his stat line be in Game 4? pic.twitter.com/63LMmShY30

— Cavaliers Nation (@WeAreCavsNation) May 11, 2025

Indiana needs to find their shooting before their opponents do. They shot just 30.0 percent from three last game. They did win the fast break battle (16-11) but that narrow margin wasn’t enough to overcome what the Cavaliers were doing. Indiana should focus on trying to force turnovers and increase their production in transition. Cleveland conceded 21 points off their turnovers in Game Three. Conclusively, that should be something Indiana tries to exploit.

Indiana is also not a good offensive rebounding team but they still need to get out in transition as much as they can. Cleveland is just 15th defending in transition while the Pacers were ranked second scoring 13.2 fast break points per game.

Board Man Gets Paid

Indiana was up two games to none and by next week they could be eliminated. The Cavaliers were a dominate first seed in the East and the team in yellow is learning why. In Game Three, Cleveland’s shooting woes continued but they gave their offence plenty of possessions by crashing the glass. They won the offensive rebounding battle by a considerable margin.

Consequently, Jarrett Allen is emerging as an X-factor in this series. After his great Game Two he picked up where he left off in Game Three. He had 19 points and 12 rebounds. 14 of those points were second chance points resulting off those incredibly crucial 18 offensive rebounds. If Indiana can’t keep Mobley and Allen off the glass then they’ll find this series tied by the time the game clock hits all zeroes tonight.

The rebounding battle broke down like this:

• Rebounds – CLE: 56 IND: 37
• Offensive Rebounds – CLE: 18 IND: 4
• Defensive Rebounds – CLE: 38 IND: 33

NBA Best Bet: Jarret Allen o13.5 Points (-115)

He’s been so good. They need his ability to put pressure on the rim. He has hit this line in four of his last five games. Simply, I’m going with the hot hand.

Jarrett Allen in Game 3:

19 PTS
12 REB
+38 (!!)

Leading the playoffs in +/- pic.twitter.com/WIm3faCf7V

— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 10, 2025

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Bonus for Peepin the Scribbles: Evan Mobley o31.5 PRA has also been tapped.

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