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Yankees vs Orioles: Odds & Predictions | April 28, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Yankees vs Orioles: The Yankees are facing a favorable matchup today with a lineup loaded with elite hitters and a struggling pitcher on the mound. Despite road struggles, New York has been dominant in the first five innings, leading the league in scoring. With a pitcher like Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been struggling against weaker lineups, the Yankees’ offense has a real opportunity to capitalize.
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Month: 93-132-4 (+8.59u)
Last week: 19-32-2 (-2.0u)
Yankees vs Orioles Odds
Can the Yankees capitalize on the Orioles early season struggles?
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Runline
Yankees: -1.5 (+120)
Orioles: +1.5 (-140)
Total
Over: 9 (-125)
Under: 9 (+105)
Moneyline
Yankees: -126
Orioles: +114
Yankees vs Orioles Best Bet
Before we get into the Yankees’ first five team total, I liked the first five over at 5.5, but I do not trust the Orioles’ bats right now. I do not care how awful Will Warren has been; since April 14th, Baltimore is batting .210 with a sub-100 wRC+. Meanwhile, during that stretch, the Yankees are batting .266 with a 132 wRC+ and a .353 OBP.
Today, the Yankees have the second-highest average hitter matchup rating, just behind the Orioles. Their lineup features four elite-rated hitters, five hitters above the league average ground ball rate, and none with poor ratings or above-league strikeout rates. New York leads the league in first-five scoring, averaging 3.5 runs per first five innings. On the road, they have not been as successful but are still averaging over 2.5 per game, with 2.62.
The Yankees have the luxury of facing Orioles’ geriatric right-hander, Tomoyuki Sugano. The 35-year-old has the worst pitcher rating on the day, with a poorly rated average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage. He has the lowest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage among starters, with 8.83%. The second-worst on the day is 16.93%. To help understand how bad an 8% strikeout rate is, pitchers with a 32% or greater strikeout rate typically surpass 6+ strikeouts 60% of the time, per Batters-Box.com. Sugano’s is 8%.
So far this season, Sugano boasts a 3.54 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. He has allowed teams to score at least 2+ runs in four of his five starts, averaging 2.2 runs per game. However, he has yet to face a lineup as strong as New York’s. He has faced Toronto twice, Washington, Cleveland, and Kansas City — not exactly a death row for pitchers — and he is still struggling.
Despite the Yankees’ road woes, this is a great price for them to go over 2.5 runs in the first five innings
Best Bet: Yankees First Five Innings Team Total Over 2.5 (-105) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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