Top Pitcher vs. Batter Matchups & How to Bet Them (5/31)

It’s officially that time of year, time for me to get into my MLB Bag and find some winners. We’ve got a HUGE slate of games today, so let’s jump right into it.

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page.

Pitcher Report| May 31st

Yak City

With so many games during the day today, the ball might just fly a little more than usual. We’ve got great conditions across the league and even better matchups. Let’s kick it off with a pitcher that’s given up a fair share of home runs this year, Brandon Pfaadt.

Pfaadt’s recorded a 7-3 record so far through 11-starts this season. He’s sporting a 3.90 ERA but at home is where he locks it down. Pfaadt’s ERA at home this year is 1.78 across 30.1 innings of work. He’s given up just one, singular home run at Chase Field this season and today may be no different.

Next we’ve got Zack Littell for the Tampa Bay Rays. Littell’s in his 8th year in the majors, 4th different team and this year hasn’t been his best. His 3.97 ERA isn’t terrible, but the 14 HRs he’s allowed this year is a tough pill to swallow. Littell’s ERA balloons to 4.18 on the road and 8 of the 14 HRs he’s allowed have come away from Steinbrenner Field. 

Lastly before we talk about the weather, let’s talk about Antonio Senzatela. His 6.50 ERA and 9 home runs allowed hardly represent the whole picture. Senzatela’s allowing opposing hitters to hit .375 and allowing lefties to hit over .400. Today he faces a team that’s had his number in the past. (See below)

Weather Man, Weather Man

In a game like baseball, the weather will always be a huge factor not only in how the game’s played, but how the ball flies through the air. Good conditions include slight humidity, low air pressure and wind blowing out of the stadium. Today we’ve got some games with great conditions and a few more with good conditions. 

Last night we saw the ball fly in Los Angeles. The Dodgers and Yankees combined for 21 hits, 13 runs, 6 HRs and countless other highlights. Aaron Judge and Ohtani both homered in the first inning, Ohtani homering once again in the 6th; sparking a 4-run 6th inning.

With winds blowing out of the stadium, low air pressure and two lineups full of big hitters; look for more of the same today. On the East Coast it’s the Phillies hosting the Brewers with 14 MPH winds blowing toward right field. The low air pressure should help today’s hitters and with today’s pitching matchup in Philly; they’ll need the help.

With Kodai Senga on the mound for the Mets and the Rockies in town, we’re looking directly at the Mets lineup in these conditions. The wind’s blowing out toward right field at Citi Field and with Senzatela on the mound, it feels like a great spot to target.

Our Best Bets on the Diamond for Saturday, May 31st

Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (-105 via BetOnline)

After lighting the World Series on fire last year on just one foot, Freeman is back healthy this season and having arguably his best season as a Dodger. Freeman’s hitting .368 this year and .389 at Dodger Stadium. He’s hit 9 HR already this year and 26 total XBH.

Freeman’s also kliling right handed pitchers this year, batting .393 with 7 of his 9 HR coming against righties. Opposite Freeman will be Will Warren for the Yankees. The 2nd year pitcher recorded a 10.32 ERA last year across 6 games; 5 of which he started.

This year’s been better for the 25-year old, but he’s yet to face the Dodgers in his career. Los Angeles recorded 12 hits last night, 8 of them coming against Yankees Ace, Max Fried. Prior to last night’s game, Fried had allowed just 3 HR all year. Last night he gave up 2 to just Shohei.

Freeman recorded 3 hits in the win and tonight he gets a young pitcher making his first ever start at Dodger Stadium. Look for the vet to make a statement tonight and maybe even get one over the fence.

Bonus: Freddy Freeman Home Run (+400)

Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+100 via BetOnline)

Lindor’s just having one of those year’s it seems like. The 31-year old is batting 0.278 this year with 12 HR and 68 combined runs/RBI. He’s been crushing for the Mets and at Citi Field, in front of the home crowd, he elevates his game even further.

Lindor’s batting .350 at home this year with 10 of his 12 HR coming in the Mets own ballpark. The Rockies will send out Antonio Senzatela and I’ve already talked plenty about him but in case you missed it; he’s allowing hitters to hit .375 this year and he’s allowing 1.5 HR/9 innings.

Look for Lindor and company to once again, get the belt out.

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