Top Pitcher vs. Batter Matchups & How to Bet Them (5/29)

It’s officially that time of year, time for me to get into my MLB Bag and find some winners. We’ve got a small slate of games today, so let’s jump right into it.

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page.

Pitcher Report| May 29th

Braves vs. Phillies – Game 2

The Braves and Phillies play two games today, Game 1 of the double-header being earlier this afternoon. The Phillies will have Zack Wheeler on the mound to wrap up this series with Atlanta, he’s got a 2.42 ERA this year and he’s recorded a 6-1 record with 11 starts so far this season.

For the Braves it’ll be Chris Sale on the mound. Sale recorded a 2.38 ERA in his first year with Braves but this year’s been a little tougher. Sale’s got a 3.36 ERA this year and he’s given up 7 total home runs. What’s more interesting are his struggles against the Phillies.

Sale’s got a 5.46 career ERA against the Phillies, giving up 3 HRs in 5 career starts. The Phillies lineup is full of big hitters, from Bryce Harper to Bryson Stott; all 9 can hit for the fences.

The Braves are 9.5-games back of the Phillies for 1st in the NL East and despite an abysmal start to the season, have managed to claw their way back to almost 0.500. Atlanta ranks 22nd in runs scored this year, 17th in HRs and have won just 9 of their 28 road games this year.

Atlanta’s been bad, but this team just got their best player back in the lineup. Fresh off an MVP-win in 2023, Acuña played just 49 games last season before suffering a torn ACL and undergoing surgical repair. He’s made his way back into the lineup and through just 4 games Acuña’s batting 0.313 and he’s already got 2 HRs in just 4-games.

Yak City

Three pitchers I’d like to highlight are Shane Baz for the Tampa Bay Ray, Emerson Hancock for the Seattle Mariners, and Ryan Gusto for the Houston Astros. All pitchers are allowing just under 2 HR/9 and will face lineups that rank in the top-10 for HRs over the L15 days.

The Astros and Rays are currently tied for 3rd, with 18 HRs over the L15 days. The Washington Nationals are coming in at 8th, hitting 15 HRs in 15 days and despite MacKenzie Gore playing great baseball this year; the Mariners have 17 HRs in the L15 days (5th)

All 4 of the lineups I just mentioned have great potential for both home runs and just regular props tonight. Let’s jump right into my best bets tonight.

Our Best Bets on the Diamond for Thursday, May 29th

James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+116 via BetOnline)

James Wood has been electric so far this year. The 2nd year left fielder has come alive for the Nationals, recording a 0.287 batting average (BA) and 15 HRs through just 55-games. Wood leads the Nationals in runs, RBI, HR and batting average.

His opponent, Emerson Hancock is a young right-handed pitcher (RHP) and in just his 3rd season he’s on track to have his worst season yet. Through 8-starts this year, Hancock has recorded a 5.95 ERA, having given up 8 home runs; 5 of which came to left handed batters (LHB).

He’s giving up just over 12 hits/9 and has struggled even more at home. When playing at T-Mobile Park, Hancocks ERA balloons to 12.34; having given up 24 hits in just 11.2 innings of work. Park conditions make it a little tougher to hit for the fences here, but with Hancock on the mound and Wood’s power; we have to sprinkle the home run.

Bonus: James Wood Home Run (+375)

Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+128 via BetOnline)

Tough matchup with Berrios, but Butler loves playing the Blue Jays. In 4-career games against Toronto, Butler’s batting 0.412 and clearing this bases prop in 3 of the 4-games. José Berríos presents a tough matchup, but one Butler’s gotten the best of in the past.

Butler’s batting 0.333 against Berrios with a singular HR in 6 career at-bats. Berríos has been okay this year, he’s got a 4.22 ERA, allowing under 9 hits/9 but it’s at the Rogers Centre he struggles

At home this year, Berríos ERA balloons to 5.19, allowing 9.73 hits/9 and 5 home runs. Berríos has also struggled against lefties this year, allowing LHB to hit 0.270 compared RHB who hit 0.231 against Berríos.

Butler’s batting 0.280 against RHP with 7 of his 8 HRs coming against the same. He’s hitting 0.264 on the road and he’s never hit  a homer inside the Rogers Centre. Feels like it might be time for that to change.

Bonus: Lawrence Butler Home Run (+450)

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