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Phillies vs Rays: Odds & Predictions | May 6, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Phillies vs Rays: Zack Wheeler has been a strikeout machine in 2025, and today he draws a juicy matchup against Tampa Bay. The Rays have been ice-cold at the plate and strike out at an above-average clip. With strong metrics and a history of success in similar spots, Wheeler is in position to deal.
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Last Month: 102-143-4 (+9.17u)
Last Week: 28-41 (+2.64u)
Phillies vs Rays Odds
Will there be some Wheeler magic down in Tampa this evening?
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Runline
Phillies: -1.5 (+140)
Rays: +1.5 (-160)
Total
Over: 8 (-104)
Under: 8 (-116)
Moneyline
Phillies: -119
Rays: +108
Phillies vs Rays Best Bet
Phillies starter Zack Wheeler takes on the Tampa Bay Rays at Steinbrenner Field. So far this season, Wheeler owns a 3.48 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. His strikeouts per nine sit at a crisp 11.66, while he averages 8.14 putaways per start in 2025.
Today, the right-hander enters with an elite rating over at Batters-Box.com. In 18 starts with that elite tag, he has cleared this strikeout prop 72 percent of the time. When facing a lineup while holding an elite average hitter matchup strikeout percentage, Wheeler goes over this number 81 percent of the time. That includes a sample of 16 games.
Tampa brings a lineup that features zero elite-rated hitters, zero rated poorly, nine hitters above the league average strikeout rate, and three with a ground ball rate above league average. Over the past week, the Rays have posted a 21 percent strikeout rate while hitting .206 with a 65 wRC+.
Even with this one going down at the Yankees’ spring training facility, I believe Wheeler can get us to seven strikeouts against the Rays.
Best Bet: Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-155) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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