Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians: MLB Best Bets (5/11)

Once again, the weekend is coming to a close. But that just means we get some nationally televised baseball between two teams battling for their division. The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Cleveland Guardians as both try to win this series that is all tied up.

This is the final game of the only series between these teams this season, so we won’t see another matchup unless both make the World Series in October. However that isn’t too crazy of an idea considering where both teams stand. The Phillies are 1.5 games behind the New York Mets in the NL East, while the Guardians are 2.5 behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.

Now, these two have split this series so far. The Guardians came out on top Friday Night, shutting out their visitors, 6-0. But then the Phillies got their revenge yesterday, not quite shutting them out, but taking down Cleveland, 7-1. Today Zack Wheeler takes the bump for Philly as they try to win this season series against Cleveland.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians: Sunday Night Baseball

Matchup Information – Phillies vs Guardians

• Venue & Location: Progressive Field (Cleveland, OH)
• Date: Sunday, May 10th, 2025
• First Pitch: 7:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Pitching Matchup

• Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.35 ERA, 0.94 WHIP)
• Cleveland Guardians: Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Phillies -1.5 (-101)
• Guardians +1.5 (-119)

Money Line

• Phillies -165
• Guardians +149

Total

• Over 7 (-120)
• Under 7 (+125)

The Phillies are pretty heavy favorites in this one, and that’s probably because Wheeler is on the mound. Despite his north of 3.30 ERA, he is 8th in the MLB with a sub 1.00 WHIP this season (0.94). He’s allowed just two earned runs in four straight starts, and hasn’t given up more than five hits in those contests, even though he’s lasted at least six innings. The point is, the guy is shoving. He’s third in the MLB in strikeouts this season, with 9.5 per game over his last four outings.

Cleveland is a pretty disciplined team at the plate, as they rank bottom half of the league in strikeout rate, and I think Wheeler’s line reflects this sitting at 6.5 juiced to the over. It’s a bit low, Wheeler has been slightly worse on the road this season, while the Guardians are 12-6 at Progressive Field. However, the Guardians batting average drops 15 points at home, which may come into play tonight against this stud.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bets

Phillies vs Guardians Prediction: Phillies Win, Over 7.5

Best Bets: Phillies TT Over 4.5 (+105) BetOnline

Ever heard of the Sunday Night juiced balls theory? Well it might not be a thing this year, as 5/6 Sunday Night Baseball games have gone under eight total runs, however, I trust the Phillies’ bats to score tonight.

They face Luis Ortiz who has struggled against good hitting lineups. He is coming off an outing allowing five earned runs on the same amount of hits in just 5.1 innings. Ortiz walked three batters as well, posting multiple walks in 6/7 starts this season. He’s given up five runs to the Nationals, four to the Yankees and seven to the Padres in starts this year, and I could see him struggling against Philly.

The visitors have three elite rated hitters on batters-box.com (Do NOT Forget the Hyphen), one with a great rating, and two others above average. His three most popular pitches are all below league average, and he throws a fastball or cutter over 50% of the time. These Philly hitters are ready to let it loose at the plate today, and I think they stand a great chance with this guy on the bump.

Give me the Phillies to put up some runs in this game and cash our team total.

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