MLB Wild Card Odds, Predictions & Picks for 10/1

The 2024 MLB regular season is finally behind us as the march toward the World Series begins on Tuesday, Oct. 1. The Wild Card Round is the first stop on the journey and the action starts today with four exciting matchups involving the following four series:

• Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros — 2:30 p.m. ET
• Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles — 4 p.m. ET
• New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers — 5:30 p.m. ET
• Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres — 8:30 p.m. ET

As usual, Betting News has your back when it comes to the MLB postseason, so let’s dive into today’s Wild Card odds, predictions, and picks!

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MLB Wild Card Round Odds & Predictions (10/1)

MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Tuesday, Oct. 1 at 9:20 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Tigers vs Astros Game 1 Predictions, Odds & Picks

• Matchup: No. 6 Detroit Tigers (86-76, 43-38 Away) vs. No. 3 Houston Astros (88-73, 46-35 Home)
• Series: Tied 0-0
• Venue & Location: Minute Maid Park (Houston, TX)
• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024
• Game Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Tigers vs. Astros: ABC

Tigers vs Astros Run Line

• Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-184)
• Houston Astros -1.5 (+164)

Astros vs Tigers Over/Under

• Over 6 Runs (-120)
• Under 6 Runs (+100)

Tigers vs Astros Moneyline

• Detroit Tigers (+134)
• Houston Astros (-146)

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The first MLB Wild Card matchup of the day begins with a Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros tilt at Minute Maid Park. These foes collided six times during the regular season, resulting in four wins for the Astros — including a 2-1 record as the home team.

I fully expect the Astros to continue their dominance over the Tigers in this matchup. As solid as Detroit can be, it enters the playoffs with negative momentum following back-to-back losses to the historically bad Chicago White Sox. Let’s also not forget that the Tigers have lost seven of their last 10 trips to Minute Maid Park, further stacking the deck against A.J. Hinch’s club.

Regardless of who wins, though, I expect these teams to hit the Over on the 6-run total. The last 12 Tigers-Astros matchups averaged 10.8 total runs per game, surpassing tonight’s projection on nine of those occasions (75.0%). Given the need to start the series with a win, elevated efforts from both sides should lead to a solid amount of offense.

Tigers vs. Astros Game 1 Prediction: HOU wins

Best Tigers vs. Astros Game 1 Bet: o6 Total Runs (-120)

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Royals vs Orioles Game 1 Predictions, Odds & Picks

• Matchup: No. 5 Kansas City Royals (86-76, 41-40 Away) vs. No. 4 Baltimore Orioles (91-71, 44-37 Home)
• Series: Tied 0-0
• Venue & Location: Camden Yards (Baltimore, MD)
• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024
• Game Time: 4 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Royals vs. Orioles: ESPN

Royals vs Orioles Run Line

• Kansas City Royals +1.5 (-173)
• Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+153)

Orioles vs Royals Over/Under

• Over 7 Runs (+106)
• Under 7 Runs (-126)

Royals vs Orioles Moneyline

• Kansas City Royals (+131)
• Baltimore Orioles (-143)

Much like the previous series, this year’s Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles matchups were somewhat one-sided. The Orioles went an impressive 4-2 SU against the Royals, however, all six outings were played in April, so you can assume that a lot has changed since those encounters.

Having said that, I’m predicting another Baltimore win tonight. The Orioles enter the MLB postseason with a 7-3 SU record across their last 10 games, which includes their current three-game win streak. Conversely, the Royals have dropped nine of their last 13 games and just went 1-2 SU against the Atlanta Braves this weekend. That’s without mentioning how the O’s are 6-1 SU in their last seven home games against the Royals.

Considering how the Royals own a minus-2.7 average run margin on their last seven trips to Camden Yards, I recommend taking the Orioles to cover the run line, too.

Royals vs. Orioles Game 1 Prediction: BAL wins

Best Royals vs. Orioles Game 1 Bet: BAL -1.5 (+153)

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Mets vs Brewers Game 1 Predictions, Odds & Picks

• Matchup: No. 6 New York Mets (89-73, 43-38 Away) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers (93-69, 47-34 Home)
• Series: Tied 0-0
• Venue & Location: American Family Field (Milwaukee, WI)
• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024
• Game Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Mets vs. Brewers: ESPN

Mets vs Brewers Run Line

• New York Mets +1.5 (-176)
• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+156)

Brewers vs Mets Over/Under

• Over 7.5 Runs (-103)
• Under 7.5 Runs (-117)

Mets vs Brewers Moneyline

• New York Mets (+129)
• Milwaukee Brewers (-140)

The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers hardly broke a sweat against the New York Mets during the MLB regular season. The Brewers won five of six matchups against the Mets between their two series, which includes outscoring the latter 31-17 on aggregate — an average margin of 2.3 runs per game. Three of those games just took place in Milwaukee last week, resulting in a pair of victories for the home team.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the pitching matchup decides tonight’s Wild Card encounter. As good as Mets RHP Luis Severino has been, I can’t ignore how he’s pitched to a 5.63 ERA across his last three starts. Meanwhile, Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta boasts a 2.35 ERA while averaging 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings in his last trio of appearances.

With the Mets typically losing whenever they play at American Family Field, I’m taking the Brewers to win and the Under on the 7.5-run total. After all, four of the six New York-Milwaukee tilts finished with fewer than 7.5 runs, including three of the last four.

Mets vs. Brewers Game 1 Prediction: MIL wins

Best Mets vs. Brewers Game 1 Bet: u7.5 Total Runs (-117)

Braves vs Padres Game 1 Predictions, Odds & Picks

• Matchup: No. 5 Atlanta Braves (89-73, 43-38 Away) vs. No. 4 San Diego Padres (93-69, 45-36 Home)
• Series: Tied 0-0
• Venue & Location: Petco Park (San Diego, CA)
• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024
• Game Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Braves vs. Padres: ESPN

Braves vs Padres Run Line

• Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-160)
• San Diego Padres -1.5 (+140)

Padres vs Braves Over/Under

• Over 7 Runs (-119)
• Under 7 Runs (-101)

Braves vs Padres Moneyline

• Atlanta Braves (+153)
• San Diego Padres (-167)

Unlike the other MLB Wild Card series matchups, the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres were nearly evenly matched during the regular season. The two foes collided seven times across the calendar as the Padres won four of those collisions. Keeping that in mind, it’s been the Braves who emerged victorious in three of the last four meetings.

The Braves’ starting pitcher is presently unknown, however, we know that the Padres are rolling with RHP Michael King. The former 2016 12th-rounder has limited opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 13 of his last 14 starts, going 8-4 with a 2.03 ERA along the way. That could be bad news for the Braves, who are only averaging 3.4 runs in their last five outings.

Taking that into account, I like the idea of the Padres winning while holding the Braves to u3.5 total runs — something they’ve done four times this season.

Braves vs. Padres Game 1 Prediction: SD wins

Best Braves vs. Padres Game 1 Bet: ATL u3.5 Total Runs (-145)

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