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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | May 2, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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MLB Best Home Run Bets: Looking for the best home run swings on Friday’s MLB slate? Two power bats stand out with strong matchups and elite trends. Brent Rooker and Teoscar Hernández both check every box to go yard tonight.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
MLB Best Home Run Bets Today, May 2nd
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Last Month: 101-141-4 (+11.96u)
Last Week: 27-38-2 (+3.84u)
Athletics vs Marlins Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Brent Rooker Home Run (+400) odds via BetOnline
Brent Rooker eyeing the stands after a hitless game on Thursday night.
The Athletics slugger owns one of the best elite trends among hitters across the league, according to Batters-Box.com. After going hitless on Thursday night, the Athletics outfielder looks to bounce back against Marlins starter Valente Bellozo, who holds the worst pitcher rating among all starters today. On top of that, Bellozo has poor marks in average hitter matchup ISO, hard contact rate, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage. Three of his four pitches are rated below league value, per FanGraphs. The 25-year-old has yet to allow a home run through his first two starts, but last season he posted a 1.97 home runs per nine innings. Hopefully, Rooker can end that streak this evening.
Rooker matches up very well against Bellozo’s arsenal. The 30-year-old righty is hitting .252 with an .813 OPS and has launched eight home runs this season. When carrying an elite rating on Batters-Box.com, Rooker records a hit 75 percent of the time and homers in 24 percent of games—a 65 elite rating sample. On the road, he is even better. In 31 elite road ratings, he records a hit 77 percent of the time and goes deep nearly 26 percent of the time.
With how well Rooker profiles against Bellozo, his elite trends, and the price on his home run prop, I believe he is well worth laying some Little Debbie money on.
Dodgers vs Braves Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Teoscar Henandez Home Run (+450) odds via BetOnline
Will we see some Hernandez magic tonight in Atlanta?
Teoscar Hernández enters today with an elite rating and strong trends in this spot. In 82 elite-rated games, he has recorded a hit 75 percent of the time and homered in 23 percent of those appearances. On the road, the numbers are even better—he has recorded a hit in 78 percent of 28 elite-rated road games and gone deep in 28 percent of them.
Today, he faces Grant Holmes of the Braves. The Atlanta starter carries a 4.50 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Despite those average-at-best numbers, his BABIP sits at an unsustainably low .191. Hitters have been extremely unlucky against him, and regression should be on the way. Hopefully, it begins today.
Holmes also holds a poorly rated average hitter matchup in both hard contact and ground ball rate, according to Batters-Box.com. On top of that, FanGraphs shows that three of the five pitches in his arsenal grade below league average. Hernández profiles well against those offerings.
At +450, this play is a go. Hernández has been seeing the ball extremely well, and Holmes is due for a doozy of a game.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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