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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 4, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Friday MLB Home Run Best Bets: The ball has been flying this week, and Friday’s slate sets up beautifully for a few more to leave the yard. With strong matchup data and elite hard contact trends, these sluggers are in prime position to go deep. Here are my favorite home run bets for tonight’s action.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 23-37 (+1.62 Units)
Thursday’s Card: 3-5 (+0.3 Units)
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Home Run Bet
Can James Wood finally get a hold of one in April?
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Let us cut to the chase on why I love James Wood in this spot. The number one reason I was drawn to him is that he has the highest matchup hard contact rate on the slate today, sitting at 51.1%. On top of that, he carries the highest overall rating in this matchup.
While his trends sample size is not the largest, when he holds an elite rating, he records a hit 61% of the time and leaves the yard 16% of the time. That is based on a sample of 31 elite-rated matchups.
The Nationals’ stud has the luxury of facing Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt, who allows the fifth-most hard contact among starting pitchers today. In ten starts where he posted an average pitcher rating, Pfaadt gave up a home run in eight of them. He also allowed over three runs in six of those outings.
At nearly 6-to-1 odds, I believe this is an excellent price for Wood to knock one out of the park.
Best Bet: James Wood Home Run (+575) at BetOnline
Dodgers vs Phillies Home Run Bet
Will Teoscar Hernandez feast on the left hander tonight?
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Mr. Teoscar Hernández—a guy I have been waiting to cash a home run prop on since the Tokyo Series—today feels like the perfect spot. He faces Phillies left-hander Jesús Luzardo, who holds an above-average rating today, but nothing particularly special.
Hernández owns a career batting average of .278 with an OPS of .895. The Dodgers slugger also carries the highest rating in this matchup. When holding an elite rating, he records a hit in 74% of those matchups, leaves the yard 21% of the time, and goes over 1.5 HRR in 57.89 percent of them.
He went hitless on Wednesday but has recorded at least one hit in three of his last five games. Today looks like an ideal opportunity to back Hernández to leave the yard in Philadelphia.
Best Bet: Teoscar Hernandez Home Run (+430) at BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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