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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 22, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
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Read Time: 5 minutes
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MLB Best Home Run Bets: Looking to back a big swing on Tuesday’s slate? Two elite hitters—Brent Rooker and Mookie Betts—step into strong matchup spots with the numbers to justify a home run sprinkle. Let’s break down why each is worth a shot to leave the yard today.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
MLB Best Home Run Bets Today, April 22nd
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Last Month Betting MLB: 80-118-2 (+6.65u)
Last week Betting MLB: 24-40 (-1.8u)
Rangers vs Athletics Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Brent Rooker Home Run (+240) odds via BetOnline
Will Brent Rooker celebrate Patrick Corbin Day the right way?
Brent Rooker has the luxury of taking full advantage of Patrick Corbin Day. The Athletics slugger enters today with the third-highest rating on Batters-Box.com. Over his last ten elite ratings, Rooker has recorded a home run in 30% of those games. Overall, he records a home run 23% of the time. That is a 60-rating sample size. With perfect temperatures in Sacramento, this could be a great spot for him to leave the yard for the seventh time this season.
The outfielder is coming off an 0-for-4 outing against the Brewers on Sunday. He has recorded a home run in two of his last four games. In his career, he is batting .266 with an OPS of .852 and 24 home runs against left handed pitchers.
Patrick Corbin owns the second-lowest average hitter matchup strikeout percentage on the day. In addition, he has the third-worst average hitter matchup wOBA and a poor matchup ISO. The primarily breaking ball pitcher has four of his five pitches graded below league value, per FanGraphs.
Rooker matches up very well against Corbin’s arsenal, and this looks like a good opportunity to back him.
I am not a fan of the -130 price on his total bases, so for those looking for value on alternative props, I also sprinkled on his double prop at +290.
Dodgers vs Cubs Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Mookie Betts Home Run (+375) odds via BetOnline
Will Mookie bring the fireworks tonight with a trip around the bases?
Mookie Betts, today is the day you go yard. After a five-game drought, this matchup sets up well for a breakout. He faces Cubs starter Shota Imanaga, against whom he has yet to record a hit in his career. Despite that, Betts carries an elite matchup rating today. When given an elite rating on Batters-Box.com, he has recorded a home run just 15% of the time over a 101-rating sample size. While that percentage is not ideal, the underlying matchup is too strong to ignore.
Imanaga enters with a poorly rated average hitter matchup ISO and ground ball rate. He also allows nearly 35% hard contact. Hitters have been getting extremely unlucky against him, as his .179 BABIP is likely unsustainable. Sooner or later, hitters are going to capitalize on his subpar offerings. His best pitch is his splitter, which he throws 34% of the time. Against splitters in his career, Betts is batting .290 with an OPS of .819 and a wRC+ of 132.
At +375, this is a great spot to back Betts, who has not recorded an extra-base hit since April 14.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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