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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 21, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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MLB Best Home Run Bets: Two spots jumped out on Monday’s slate for home run props. Kyle Schwarber and Mike Yastrzemski both have the matchup and numbers to back it up. Here is the breakdown.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
MLB Best Home Run Bets Today, April 21st
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Last Month Betting MLB: 78-110-2 (+9.1u)
Last week Betting MLB: 26-36 (+2.45u)
Phillies vs Mets Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+400) odds via BetOnline
Can Kyle Schwarber hit another nuke missile into space this evening?
I told you in the best bets piece that I was going to be on Kyle Schwarber to leave the yard, so here is the write-up.
Ranked inside the top 15 hitters on Batters-Box.com, Schwarber shows strong elite rating trends. In 38 elite-rated games away from home, he hits a home run 18 percent of the time. In 34 at-bats on the road this season, the 32-year-old is batting .324 with a 1.188 OPS and four home runs.
Today, he faces Mets starter Tylor MeGill, who, surprisingly, has not given up a home run through four starts this season. None of the right-hander’s pitches are particularly impressive, aside from his sinker, which carries a 3.2 grade on FanGraph’s pitch values. Schwarber is batting .500 against sinkers this season on a 45-pitch sample. For his career, he owns a sub-.300 average against sinkers, but with a 1.011 OPS and a 178 wRC+.
The last time he left the yard was Friday against the Marlins. Before that, he went seven games without one. Hopefully, we will not have to wait that long for another. Given how well Schwarber matches up against MeGill, I believe it is well worth a sprinkle.
Brewers vs Giants Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Mike Yastrzemski Home Run (+625) odds via BetOnline
Can Mike Yastrzemski record his fourth home run of the season tonight against the Brewers?
The fourth highest-rated hitter on Monday’s slate is Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski. The 34-year-old has received only 19 elite ratings over the last three seasons, according to Batters-Box.com. At home, he has performed much better at the plate. So far this season, in 17 at-bats at home, he is batting .348 with a 1.324 OPS and two home runs.
Today, he faces Brewers starter Quinn Priester, a heavy ground ball pitcher who still allows over 35 percent hard contact. He carries a poor average hitter matchup wOBA and ISO. Despite starting the season strong with a sub-1.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, Priester’s stuff remains mediocre. His main three pitches do not even grade a full point above league average on FanGraphs, making them average at best.
Yastrzemski matches up very well against Priester’s entire arsenal. Given the price and how well he is seeing the ball to begin the season, I believe this is a strong spot to back the Giants outfielder to leave the yard.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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