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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 2, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Home Run Best Bets: Today’s MLB slate brings exciting opportunities for power hitters, with Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber in prime spots to go deep. Both players are coming off impressive starts to the season and are facing pitchers who struggle with hard contact.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 17-28 (+0.39 Units)
Tuesday’s Card: 5-3 (+3.24 Units)
Rockies vs Phillies Home Run Bet
Can Kyle Schwarber keep his hot bat going?
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When Schwarber has an elite rating, he records a home run 23.42% of the time, based on a 111-game sample size. He has been seeing the ball better than anyone on the Phillies, batting .353 with three home runs and an OPS of 1.303.
He faces the pleasure of taking on the worst-rated pitcher of the day, Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, who posted an ERA of nearly six on the road last season. He now holds the worst rating, as well as the worst average hitter matchup wOBA and matchup ISO. If the Phillies have an explosive evening, I believe it starts with Schwarber.
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+400) BetOnline
Braves vs Dodgers Home Run Bet
Can Shohei Ohtani show up and show out tonight against the Braves?
Ohtani in this spot feels right. With the second highest rating of the day, he hits a home run 33.11% of the time when elite, based on a 148-game sample. That is the highest home run percentage trend among all hitters in baseball.
The Dodgers slugger is batting .280 with two home runs and an OPS of .998 to start the season. He has just one hit in his last three games, which makes me like this even more. Ohtani is a player who produces nearly every night, and he is due for an explosive performance, especially against a pitcher who allows over 40% hard contact.
I have a strong feeling he will have a massive game this evening. The gut instinct will not go away.
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+250) BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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