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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 18, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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MLB Best Home Run Bets: Warm weather, hitter-friendly parks, and struggling arms set the stage for some big swings on Friday’s slate. Several hitters enter with elite ratings and favorable matchups against vulnerable pitchers. Here are a few spots where the long ball feels well within reach.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
MLB Best Home Run Bets Today, April 18th
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Last Month Betting MLB: 73-97-2 (+12.15u)
Last week Betting MLB: 25-35-2 (+3.14u)
Yankees Rays Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Yandy Diaz Home Run (+480) odds via BetOnline
Can Yandy Diaz take advantage of a week Yankee starter?
Having the luxury of facing Yankees starter Carlos Rodon on a hot 85-degree day feels like the perfect recipe to knock one out of a small spring training facility. Yandy Diaz seems like the perfect guy to get that job done in this matchup.
Entering with an elite rating on Batters-Box.com, Diaz has been up and down at the plate this season, batting .215 with a .617 OPS. When holding an elite rating, Diaz hits a home run 15% of the time. Not the flashiest number, but he records a hit 82% of the time and goes over 1.5 bases 51% of the time.
However, Rodon has been abysmal this season, posting a 5.48 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and allowing 1.96 home runs per nine innings. None of his pitches are worth mentioning from a value standpoint. Diaz matches up well against his entire repertoire. At nearly 5-to-1 odds, his home run and bases props are both worth the sprinkle.
Reds vs Orioles Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Ryan Mountcastle Home Run (+650) odds via BetOnline
Will we see fireworks from Ryan Mountcastle later tonight?
The fourth-highest rated bat in this matchup is Ryan Mountcastle, who is coming off an 0-for-3 outing last night. Today, he faces Reds starter Andrew Abbott, who holds the worst rating on Batters-Box.com. On top of that, Abbott has the worst average hitter matchup ISO, the third-worst average hitter matchup wOBA, and the lowest ground ball percentage among all starting pitchers.
Mountcastle matches up well against all of Abbott’s pitches. Against left-handed pitchers, he has a career .286 batting average and an .841 OPS. When holding an elite rating, the Orioles first baseman has recorded a home run at home 22.22% of the time. That comes from a small sample of nine games.
If you want a larger sample, Mountcastle records a hit 80% of the time and clears 1.5 bases 53% of the time across 30 games with an elite rating.
The biggest concern is his spot in the order. With him lower in the lineup, it will be important for the Orioles to be producing early and often. Hopefully, tonight is the night Mountcastle launches his second home run of the season.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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