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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 16, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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MLB Best Home Run Bets: Wednesday’s slate offers two enticing opportunities with elite hitters in prime positions. Jackson Chourio aims to bounce back against a struggling Tigers pitcher, while Shohei Ohtani faces a Rockies starter who gives up the most hard contact. Both matchups present strong value for bettors looking to back powerful offenses.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, April 16th
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Last Month Betting MLB: 63-89-2 (+7.78u)
Last week Betting MLB: 21-32-2 (-1.14u)
Tigers vs Brewers Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Jackson Chourio Home Run (+475) odds via BetOnline
Can the young stud take out out of the park in Milwaukee this afternoon?
After an 0-for-4 night on Tuesday, Jackson Chourio looks to bounce back against a Tigers pitcher who has not taken the mound since October. Keider Montero carries the fifth-worst pitcher rating of the day. He gives up a lot of hard contact—last season, he allowed 1.74 home runs per nine innings.
The Brewers’ young star holds the ninth-best rating on Batters-Box.com. Chourio has been crushing the ball, batting .275 with an OPS of .843 and five home runs. His elite rating trends are small, but sharp. In seven elite-rated matchups, he has recorded a hit 71% of the time, gone over 1.5 total bases 57% of the time, and homered 42% of the time.
With this being Montero’s first start of the 2025 season, it feels like a perfect time to back one of the Brewers’ best bats. The young stud is well worth the sprinkle this afternoon.
Rockies vs Dodgers Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+255) Odds via BetOnline
Will we see fireworks from Shohei tonight?
The highest-rated hitter on Batters-Box.com to record a home run at +255 feels like a great price for one of the best bats in the game to leave the yard—especially after going 0-for-4 on Tuesday night. Now he faces Rockies starter Germán Márquez, who holds the second-worst pitcher rating of the day. The 30-year-old right-hander allows the most hard contact among today’s starters and carries the worst average hitter matchup ISO. Through three starts, he has posted a 4.60 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Márquez has allowed four or more runs in back-to-back outings.
Ohtani’s trends at home are outstanding. When rated elite at home, he records a hit 76% of the time, goes over 1.5 total bases 57% of the time, and hits a home run 33.9% of the time. On top of that, he leads the slate in hard contact percentage, now matched against a pitcher who gives up the most hard contact. With such a strong rating today, I have to back his home run prop. I will likely pair his hit with another player for plus money as well, but the home run is my top play.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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