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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 15, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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MLB Best Home Run Bets: Plenty of hitters are in prime spots to leave the yard today, and the numbers back it up. From favorable matchups to elite hard contact trends, this slate offers several intriguing home run targets. Here are a few swings worth taking.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, April 15th
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Last Month Betting MLB: 59-80-2 (+9.83u)
Last week Betting MLB: 21-29-2 (+2.04u)
Angels vs Rangers Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Josh Jung Over Home Run (+540) odds via BetOnline
Does the bobblehead night narrative truly matter?
Happy Josh Jung bobblehead day, everyone! The Rangers’ young stud not only holds the fourth-highest matchup rating on the slate, but also ranks fourth in hard contact among all hitters. The 27-year-old has been on fire to start the 2025 season, slashing .407 with a 1.111 OPS.
Jung’s elite-rated trends are strong: in 22 such matchups, he has recorded a hit 72.73% of the time and cleared 1.5 total bases 40.91% of the time. Home runs? Not as frequent. However, I believe the price is worth the squeeze—especially considering how well he matches up against Yusei Kikuchi’s pitch mix.
The 33-year-old left-hander has stumbled out of the gate with a 5.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through three starts. Kikuchi has surrendered a home run in every outing, and per FanGraphs, only one of his five pitches rates above league average by a full tick. The rest? Mostly below average.
This feels like a great spot to back a guy being celebrated with his own bobblehead day. Do I fully believe in narrative plays like that? Not really—but I do believe in fun.
Mets vs Twins Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Matt Wallner Home Run (+520) Odds via BetOnline
Can Wallner be trusted after a hot Monday night?
I love to talk about Matt Wallner, mostly because his props are always mis-priced. For example, his hit prop is even money—he just needs ONE HIT. He is the leadoff man for this Minnesota team, and he has been seeing the ball extremely well, batting .289 with a .930 OPS in April.
The Twins outfielder has a great rating on Batters-Box.com and excellent rating trends to match. In 20 elite-rated matchups, he has recorded at least one hit 70% of the time and homered in 30% of them—the sixth-highest home run trend percentage among all hitters on the site.
He faces Tylor Megill today, who really only has one above-average pitch: his sinker. The rest of his arsenal hovers around average or below. Wallner, meanwhile, owns a career .786 OPS and 132 wRC+ against sinkers, and he has been crushing fastballs and sliders this season—especially sliders, against which he is hitting .417 with a 1.500 OPS and 319 wRC+.
This is a perfect spot to back a hot bat at home. Sprinkle a little on it and enjoy the ride.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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