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MLB Best Home Run Bets Today | April 1, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Power bats are in prime spots today, facing struggling pitchers who have been giving up hard contact at alarming rates. With elite-rated hitters set up for success, the data points to several strong home run opportunities. Let’s break down the best home run bets on the slate.
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2023 MLB Results: +96.0 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Monday’s Best HR Bets Write Up: 0-2 (-0.5 Units)
Everything is tracked on my Action.
Diamondbacks vs Yankees Best Bet
Can Eugenio Suarez keep the hot bat alive tonight in the Bronx?
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The highest-rated hitter on today’s MLB slate, Eugenio Suarez, also holds the highest matchup hard contact rate. On top of that, he faces Will Warren, who allows the second-highest average hitter matchup hard contact while carrying the third-worst pitcher rating of the day.
When holding an elite rating, Suarez records a home run 25.71% of the time and goes over 3+ hits, runs, and RBIs 37.14% of the time. His hit prop sits around -140, an incredible price for the top-rated hitter to record a hit. His trend percentage may not be the flashiest, but the odds favor a player who has been seeing the ball well in 2025.
Suarez has come out of the gates hot this season, batting .286 with four home runs. After going hitless against the Cubs on Sunday, a day of rest should reset the Arizona third baseman. With Yankees starter Warren struggling to find a decent outing, Suarez is in a prime spot for success today.
Best Bet: Eugenio Suarez Home Run (+500)
Angels vs Cardinals Best Bet
Will today be the day Jorge Soler goes yard?
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Another hitter that caught my eye today is newly acquired Angel Jorge Soler, who holds the second-highest hitter rating on Batters-Box.com. The Angels slugger faces Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore, the lowest-rated pitcher of the day. Liberatore allows the most hard contact and has the highest average hitter matchup ISO on today’s slate.
When carrying an elite rating, the 33-year-old records at least one hit 72.22% of the time, goes over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs 55.56% of the time, and hits a home run 20.83% of the time. Not only is his hit prop a strong play to pair with another for plus money, but his HRR prop at 1.5 is also a great look. I am very high on the Angels today, as mentioned in my best bets article—this team should be all over Liberatore.
Like Suarez, Soler has been seeing the ball well to start the season, hitting .231 with three hits in four games. With the Angels featuring six elite-rated hitters, there should be a rally around him—or started by him—to elevate his game and record his first home run of the season.
Best Bet: Jorge Soler Home Run (+350)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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