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MLB Best Home Run Bets | May 9, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Best MLB Home Run Bets: We have two strong home run targets tonight in Jackson Chourio and Kyle Schwarber. Both enter with elite matchup ratings and favorable hitting conditions—Chourio with heat and wind in Tampa, Schwarber with a fastball-heavy pitcher in Cleveland. The numbers line up, and the upside is there for both to leave the yard.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, May 9th
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Last Month: 97-157-2 (-4.69u)
Last Week: 21-45 (-8.11u)
Brewers vs Rays Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Jackson Chourio Home Run (+390) odds via BetOnline
Will the young star shine in Tampa?
I have been dying to take advantage of the location and the weather down in Tampa. Today feels like the right spot to back Jackson Chourio, with 80-degree weather and the wind blowing out toward the fence.
Chourio enters with a great rating on Batters-Box.com. In games where he holds a great road rating, he homers 21% of the time—a small sample size of 14 games, but still worth noting.
The Brewers’ young stud faces Zack Littell, who carries a 4.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. The right-hander throws his fastball 41% of the time, graded as slightly above average per FanGraphs. Chourio has handled sliders well in his career, batting .256 with a .739 OPS and a 107 wRC+. Littell’s best pitch is a splitter graded at 1.63, which is solid, but Chourio has always seen the pitch well. Despite a small sample of only 45 splitters faced, he is batting .278 against them.
Hopefully, the young star can get a hold of one. With the heat and the breeze, it would not take much for the ball to leave the yard.
Phillies vs Guardians Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+375) odds via BetOnline
Can Schwarber show up in Cleveland for us?
Kyle Schwarber ended last night’s game in Tampa with a single to spark a Phillies rally. Today, the team heads to Cleveland—still on the road—where Schwarber plays his best ball. He is batting a crisp .294 with a .973 OPS there. The big fella has not left the yard since Tuesday. Today, he enters with yet another elite rating on Batters-Box.com, where he homers in nearly 24% of elite-rated games—a solid sample of 130.
He faces Guardians starter Gavin Williams, who has below-average metrics in both matchup ISO and ground ball rate—exactly what we want for Schwarber to drive the ball. Williams, a right-hander, carries a 5.06 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He throws fastballs 53% of the time, and I love when pitchers lean on the heater. Schwarber is batting .349 against fastballs this season with a 1.272 OPS and a 250 wRC+.
With the way he matches up against Williams’ pitch mix—and that elite rating backing him—I think Schwarber is a great look to leave the yard this evening.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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