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MLB Best Home Run Bets | April 17, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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MLB Best Home Run Bets: Few things in baseball betting deliver like a home run ticket cashing. Today’s slate features several power bats in strong matchups. Here is the top spot to circle for a long ball swing.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today, April 17th
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Last Month Betting MLB: 63-89-2 (+7.78u)
Last week Betting MLB: 21-32-2 (-1.14u)
Giants vs Phillies Best Home Run Bet
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+425) odds via BetOnline
Will we see another Schwarb-Bomb this afternoon?
The Phillies slugger has been seeing the ball extremely well to start the 2025 season, boasting a .266 average and a 1.014 OPS. On top of that, he brings some strong elite rating trends: records a hit 57% of the time, goes over 1.5 bases 41% of the time, and hits a home run in 24% of games.
Today, Schwarber faces Giants starter Jordan Hicks, who holds a poorly rated average hitter matchup wOBA and strikeout percentage. He also allows nearly 35% hard contact. Hicks is primarily a sinkerball pitcher, and his sinker is graded below league value, per FanGraphs. His second most-used pitch is a slider, which is also rated below league value.
Schwarber has historically crushed sinkers — a career .295 average, 1.011 OPS, and 178 wRC+. This season, he has seen only 32 sinkers but is hitting .500 against them, with a 2.278 OPS and a 400 wRC+. Very small sample size, but the numbers are too good to ignore.
At a price of +425, I believe taking Schwarber is a strong look with plenty of good data backing his success.
Best Bet: Heliot Ramos Home Run (+525) Odds via BetOnline
Or will Heliot Ramos steal the show instead of Kyle Schwarber?
Another great bat in this matchup is Giants stud Heliot Ramos, who enters with the second-highest matchup rating in this game. The center fielder brings some strong elite rating trends: 83% hit rate, 50% over 1.5 bases, and a 27% home run rate.
He faces Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez, who throws a sinker 50% of the time and a changeup 35% of the time — neither pitch is graded in a whole number on his FanGraphs pitch values. Sanchez has allowed a home run in two of his three starts this season and carries a 3.12 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP. For his career, Ramos is hitting .285 with 11 home runs and a .906 OPS against left-handed pitching.
With how well Ramos has been seeing the ball, and considering he has not gone deep since April first, it feels safe to say, “he is due.” Give Ramos a little sprinkle.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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