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MLB Best Bets Today | April 5, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
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Read Time: 5 minutes
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Saturday MLB Best Bets: Saturday’s MLB slate offers a pair of strong spots to back explosive offenses in favorable matchups. The Reds face a vulnerable Elvin Rodriguez, while the Rangers look to stay hot against Taj Bradley’s road struggles. Both teams have the firepower and matchup edge to cash early.
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Last Month Betting MLB: 23-37 (+1.62 Units)
Thursday’s Card: 4-5 (+0.4u)
Reds vs Brewers Best Bet
Can Elly De La Cruz’s bat stay hot?
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We are backing the highest-rated offense on Batters-Box.com and taking their first five team total over 1.5 runs. The struggling Cincinnati Reds face Brewers starter Elvin Rodriguez, who enters the day with the worst pitcher rating on the board. He holds the highest average hitter matchup wOBA and the highest matchup ISO. On top of that, the 27-year-old right-hander owns the second-lowest average hitter ground ball rate.
Rodriguez is coming off a rough outing against the Royals, where he allowed four runs on six hits across four innings. Since debuting in 2022, he has only logged 37 total innings pitched. That lack of experience should continue to be an issue for him today.
The Reds have been off to a slow start in the first five innings this season, averaging just 1.38 runs per first five—fifth worst in the league. In 2024, they ranked eighth, averaging over two and a half runs. This is a young, talented group that should eventually turn things around. Today’s lineup features six elite-rated hitters, zero rated poor, four with strikeout rates above league average, and none with ground ball rates above the league mark. Their overall average hitter matchup rating is graded as elite.
This is a great spot to back a Cincinnati team that needs to find its rhythm. At 1.5 runs with six elite-rated hitters, this is an auto bet for me.
Best Bet: Reds F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-150) at BetOnline
Rays vs Rangers Best Bet
Can Corey Seager will the Rangers to a hot first five?
Similar to the Reds, the Texas Rangers have a very favorable matchup against Tampa Bay Rays starter Taj Bradley, who owns the fourth-worst pitcher rating on the day. On top of that, he allows the highest hard contact rate among all starting pitchers today—by nearly six percent. The 24-year-old right-hander is coming off a strong first start against the Rockies this past Sunday, striking out seven and allowing two runs over six innings.
It is well known that Bradley is lights out at home but tends to struggle on the road. In 2024, his strikeout numbers dip and his ERA climbs when away from Tropicana. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues.
Bradley faces a Rangers offense that features four elite-rated hitters, zero rated poor, seven with strikeout rates above the league average, and one with a ground ball rate above the league mark. Texas has averaged 1.88 runs in the first five innings this season. They have one of the most explosive lineups in baseball, with all of the tools to find early success against Bradley. They are coming off a four-run first five showing last night and should be able to keep that momentum going.
Three of their four elite-rated hitters rank in the top four in hard contact percentage today. Corey Seager and Joc Pederson rank first and second, while Adolis Garcia holds the fourth-highest mark. These are three guys who can do damage in a hurry.
With the current price on this prop, I believe it is worth the squeeze. If it were any lower, I would be a little turned off. Take the plus money!
Best Bet: Rangers F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (+114) at BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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