MLB Best Bets: Team Totals | April 1, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Tue Apr 01, 2025, 12:12 PM
Read Time: 4 minutes
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MLB Best Bets: The Diamondbacks and Angels are both in prime spots to capitalize on struggling opposing pitchers. Arizona faces Yankees starter Will Warren, who has been one of the worst-rated arms on the day, while Los Angeles takes on Matthew Liberatore, the lowest-rated pitcher on today’s slate. With elite bats in both lineups and glaring weaknesses on the mound, expect early offensive fireworks from both teams.
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2023 MLB Results: +96.0 Units
2024 MLB Results: +13.71 Units
Monday’s Best Bet Write Up: 1-1 (-0.19 Units)
Everything is tracked on my Action.
Diamondbacks vs Yankees Best Bet
Will Josh Naylor and the Diamondbacks be able to keep up with the Yankees?
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The Arizona Diamondbacks have the luxury of facing one of the worst-rated pitchers on today’s slate. Yankees starter Will Warren gets the nod and holds the third-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. In 22.2 innings pitched in 2024, Warren has posted a 10.32 ERA and a 1.90 WHIP. During spring training, he threw 23 innings, recording a 5.09 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. It has not been the greatest year for him, and the data points to the Diamondbacks having plenty of success against him.
Arizona’s lineup features four elite-rated hitters and holds the second-highest average hitter matchup rating. The entire lineup’s average hitter matchup rating is graded as elite. They also have zero poorly rated hitters and just two batters above the league’s ground ball rate.
The Diamondbacks have averaged 2.5 runs per first five innings. Last season, they ranked second in first-five scoring, putting up over three runs per first five. With Warren allowing the second-most hard contact, the highest matchup wOBA, and the second-highest matchup ISO, the Diamondbacks should feast tonight in the Bronx.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-160)
Angels vs Cardinals Best Bet
Can Jorge Soler propel the Angels to a win tonight in St. Louis?
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Yes, we are backing the Angels in the first five innings against the Cardinals. They are facing Matthew Liberatore, who holds the worst pitcher rating on today’s slate, per Batters-Box.com. The Cardinals starter allows the highest hard contact percentage and matchup ISO of the day.
Los Angeles has the highest average hitter matchup rating today, with an overall team rating graded as elite. The Angels lineup features six elite-rated hitters, zero poorly rated hitters, three batters above the league strikeout rate, and only one hitter above the league ground ball rate.
A year ago, the Angels ranked 27th in first-five scoring, averaging 2.23 runs per first five innings. They have made plenty of improvements to the lineup, and despite averaging under one run to start 2025, they have the firepower to rack up two runs before the end of the fifth.
Best Bet: Angels First Five Innings Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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