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Mets vs Diamondbacks: Odds & Predictions | April 5, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
New York Mets Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+145
9
-105o
-105
Arizona Diamondbacks Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-160
9
+105u
-105
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameMets vs Diamondbacks: After a doubleheader on Sunday, the Mets travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Ryne Nelson takes the mound for Arizona, bringing the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com into this matchup. New York counters with one of the day’s highest-rated lineups, headlined by elite hitters like Pete Alonso and Juan Soto.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
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Last Month: 101-144-4 (+9.31u)
Last Week: 28-42 (+2.86u)
Mets vs Diamondbacks Odds
Can the polar bear show up in the desert tonight?
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Runline
Mets: +1.5 (-195)
Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+170)
Total
Over: 9.5 (-107)
Under: 9.5 (-113)
Moneyline
Mets: +108
Diamondbacks: -119
Mets vs Diamondbacks Best Bet
Forget a side, forget a total — we are heading to the player props market and taking a hitter with the third-best batting average in the majors. Mr. Pete Alonso to go over 1.5 total bases today, taking on Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson.
Alonso is one of two elite-rated Mets hitters in this matchup, the other being Juan Soto. I did dabble in Soto’s bases prop as well, but Alonso’s numbers line up much better. When holding an elite rating on Batters-Box.com, Alonso records a hit 65 percent of the time, goes over this prop in 50 percent of those games, and leaves the yard nearly 27 percent of the time. That is a 78 elite rating sample size. On the road, those trends are nearly identical — a 66 percent hit rate, 50 percent over on total bases, and 25 percent home run rate. Just a 24 road elite rating sample size.
The longtime Met draws a favorable matchup against a pitcher who leans heavily on his fastball. Ryne Nelson throws his fastball nearly 60 percent of the time. This season, Alonso is batting .382 against the fastball with a 1.100 OPS and a 217 wRC+. He is not only crushing fastballs, but he is also hitting Nelson’s cutter — his best pitch — even better. Alonso is batting .333 with a 1.253 OPS and a 220 wRC+ against cutters.
For the price and the matchup, Alonso’s total bases prop is the best look on the board. Yes, I mentioned being on Juan Soto’s bases prop as well, but Alonso matches up much better and has been seeing the ball extremely well through the first month and a half of the season.
Best Bet: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Bases (-105) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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