Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals: MLB Odds & Best Bets

It’s Friday Night at the K as the Kansas City Royals host the Houston Astros to start a three game weekend series. This is the first of two between these American League teams this season, as they face off in Houston in just a couple weeks. Both teams currently sit in 3rd place of their division, but the Astros are in a much better spot.

Houston sits at 13-11 on the year, just half a game behind both the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West. However, they are only a game ahead of the Angels, and the Athletics are just two out of first place. The race is tight, but it’s only April. Plenty of baseball to be played to separate the contenders from the frauds.

The Royals are sub .500 sitting at 12-14, and as a fan, I am wishing they could play every game at home. They are 9-4 at Kauffman so far this season, and their team batting average improves 20 points at home. The Yals are three and a half games out of first place in the AL Central, and three games out of second. But they are comfortably ahead of the Twins and White Sox, who are six and nine games behind the division leading Tigers.

Will we see some Friday Night magic for the Royals? You betcha.

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Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals: Friday Nights at the K

Matchup Information – Astros vs Royals

• Venue & Location: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
• Date: Friday, April 25th, 2025
• First Pitch: 7:40pm Eastern

Pitching Matchup

• Houston Astros: Hayden Wesneski (1-1, 3.91 ERA, 0.87 WHIP)
• Kansas City Royals: Seth Lugo (1-3, 3.90 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)

Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+153)
• Royals +1.5 (-174)

Money Line

• Astros -112
• Royals +102

Total

• Over 8 (-105)
• Under 8 (-115)

This is an MLB system play that is backed by a 20 game sample size dating back to June of 2023. It’s so simple, I’m not reinventing the wheel, but I will continue to ride this play until it fails me.

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Best Bets

Astros vs Royals Prediction: Royals Win, Over 8

Best Bets: Royals TT Over 3.5 (-124) BetOnline

Now, we are on the Royals TT Over 3.5, but we are also on their ML at +102, and took the -1.5 at (+196) for half a unit as well. I am riding these three plays in this system until it gives me a reason not to. Let me explain.

Since June of 2023, the Royals have played 20 games at home on a Friday Night. In those 20 games, they have scored 5+ runs 16/20 times (4+ two other times which is all we need), they’ve won 16/20 games outright, and they’ve covered the -1.5 in 14/20 games as well. So far this season, all three hit on April 4th against the Baltimore Orioles, and again, the Royals are a different team at home.

Their team batting average jumps from .221 to .244 at home, and their OPS leaps over 40 points from .611 to .658. Pitching wise, their team ERA drops from 3.52 to 3.15, with their opponents’ batting average dropping 20 points as well. If you only tail one of these plays, take the team total and eliminate the Royals pitching and bullpen from the equation, but as for me, I’ll take all three and hope we come out on top.

Lugo’s ERA drops at home this season and he’s bound to get more run support anyways. Plenty of the Astros’ hitters have his number, but again, taking the team total takes this out of the bet completely. As for Wesneski, he’s allowed six home runs this season, including one in each of his four starts. He throws an average four seam nearly 40% of the time, followed by a sweeper every four pitches. Wesneski currently ranks in the bottom 8% of the MLB in HardHit%, giving up hard contact on half of his batted balls. Add that with the fact that the Royals bats have some magic on Fridays at home, I think they’re capable of crossing the plate enough for us.

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