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MLB Best Prop Bets Today: First Five Team Totals | April 9, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
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Read Time: 5 minutes
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MLB Best Bets: Two elite offenses take center stage on Wednesday’s MLB slate, with the Mets and Orioles both drawing high-powered matchups against vulnerable starters. New York leads all teams in average hitter rating, while Baltimore ranks second, and both face arms that have consistently allowed runs early. With strong first five trends and favorable numbers, these are two spots worth backing.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today, April 9th
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Last Month Betting MLB: 42-57-2 (+8.93 Units)
Last week Betting MLB: 25-29-2 (+8.53u)
Marlins vs Mets Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Mets First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-150) odds via BetOnline
Can Juan Soto and the Mets take care of business in the first five innings?
The highest-rated team on Wednesday’s slate is the New York Mets, who feature six elite-rated hitters and an entire lineup with an average rating in the elite range. On top of that, they have three hitters who strike out less than the league average and eight who are above the league average in ground ball rate. The high ground ball rate is a concern, but they are facing a starter with the third-worst pitcher rating, who allows a ton of hard contact. I am able to look past that.
The Mets face Marlins starter Max Meyer, who has allowed at least two runs in each of his first two starts this season. In his last outing against the Braves, he gave up three runs on eight hits over six innings. To begin the season, none of Meyer’s pitches register at a whole number on FanGraphs’ pitch value chart. In 2024, none of his pitches were above league average. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues in 2025.
So far this season, the Mets are averaging 2.27 runs in the first five innings. Over their last three games, that number is up to three. The Marlins, as a team, are allowing 2.73 runs per first five innings to begin the 2025 season. As I always say when it comes to first five team totals: taking a very good offense to go over 1.5 runs in the first five is a must. It is a gift to get them at 1.5. Pay the juice. Trust the offense with the highest rating on Batters-Box.com.
Orioles vs Diamondbacks Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Orioles First Five Team Total Over 1.5 (-154) odds via BetOnline
The same goes for the Baltimore Orioles, who hold the second-highest average hitter matchup rating. Their lineup includes only one elite-rated hitter, zero rated poorly, five who strike out less than the league average, and just one above the league ground ball rate. Despite the lack of standout individual ratings, the entire lineup’s average hitter rating is graded as elite. They are one of only four teams with an elite rating on today’s slate.
The Birds take on Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt, who has allowed three or more runs in each of his first two starts this season. The 26-year-old right-hander enters with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Pfaadt allows the most hard contact among today’s starters. In 11 starts against average pitcher ratings, he has allowed over 1.5 runs in 81.82% of them. It is not the largest sample size, but it is worth noting.
Shockingly, for a team known for having one of the better rotations in the game, Arizona ranks second worst in runs allowed in the first five innings, giving up 3.58 per game to start the season. Baltimore, on the other hand, ranks seventh in first five scoring, putting up 2.92 runs per game.
I love this number. I love the price. Pay the juice. Trust the Birds.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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