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MLB Best Prop Bets Today | May 28, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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MLB Best Bets: Team total bases has taken over as my go-to prop and for good reason—it exposes struggling arms against dangerous lineups. Today, we are fading two vulnerable starters in Tanner Gordon and Sandy Alcantara, both showing brutal splits and weak advanced metrics. The Cubs and Padres are built to capitalize, and both are in strong spots to break out offensively.
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Best MLB Prop Bets Today, May 28
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Last Month: 96-160 (+8.23u)
Last Week: 19-33 (-0.65u)
Marlins vs. Padres Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Padres Team Total Over 12.5 Bases (-120) odds via BetOnline
Can Fermando Tatis and the Padres show up and show out again tonight?
My new favorite prop has now taken over Best Bets: team total bases. Today, we are fading Sandy Alcantara. This is not the same Sandy Alcantara who won the NL Cy Young a few years ago. This is a completely different pitcher—one with a 12.64 ERA on the road and a .348 opponent batting average. The Marlins’ ace is allowing 1.8 extra-base hits per start in 2025. Overall, he is giving up 4.9 hits per start and 5.75 on the road.
According to this season’s Batters-Box ratings, Alcantara has a poorly rated average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage. The Padres lineup includes four elite-rated hitters, zero rated poor, one above the league average strikeout rate, and eight above the league average ground ball rate.
San Diego currently ranks 17th in bases per game, averaging 13. Miami is allowing the fourth most, giving up nearly 15 per game—and 15.36 on the road. Last night, the Marlins surrendered 20 total bases to the Padres. This could be an even better spot for the Friars.
A line of 12.5 feels too low. Alcantara has been awful this season, and I will continue to ride his struggles. Go Friars.
Rockies vs. Cubs Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Cubs Team Total Over 14.5 Bases (-115) odds via BetOnline
Will there be fireworks on the Northside this evening?
Another struggling arm we are fading today is Rockies starter Tanner Gordon, who will be making his first road appearance of the season. Despite having only two starts this year, the 27-year-old has already allowed four extra-base hits in just 12.1 innings pitched. In six road starts last season, Gordon posted a 10.10 ERA and allowed a .382 opponent batting average.
Gordon enters today with the worst pitcher rating on the slate. According to Batters-Box, he holds poor average hitter matchup wOBA, ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage. He faces a Cubs lineup that features four elite-rated hitters, zero rated poor, one above average in strikeout rate, and three above league average in ground ball rate.
Colorado is allowing the second most bases per game this season, surrendering an average of 16.42. Chicago ranks second in bases per game overall, averaging 15.82, and 13.76 at Wrigley. After managing only 11 total bases last night, I believe the Cubs are due for an explosive outing against one of the worst rotations in baseball.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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