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Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets | May 27, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Home Run Best Bets: Two left-handed power bats land in strong spots tonight with elite matchup ratings and big value on their home run props. Kyle Schwarber and Vinnie Pasquantino both face starters with below-average stuff and pitch profiles that suit their strengths. When the numbers, matchup, and price all line up, you hit bet!
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here. You can also browse our list of the best online sportsbooks.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today, May 27
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Last Month: 97-160 (+8.1u)
Last Week: 23-33 (+4.46u)
Braves vs. Phillies Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+275) odds via BetOnline
Will we see fireworks off the bat of Kyle Schwarber?
Kyle Schwarber finds himself inside Batters-Box.com’s top 15 ratings today and sits atop this game’s matchup board. The Phillies slugger has incredible home run trends when elite, in 138 ratings he leaves the yard 25% of the time. At home, in 50 ratings, he leaves the yard 26% of the time. Despite playing slightly better on the road this season, he still holds a .822 OPS at home.
He takes on Braves starter Spencer Strider, who according to Batters-Box.com, ranks poorly in average hitter matchup ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball percentage. He has posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in his first two starts since returning. The 26-year-old righty is throwing fastballs 58% of the time.
We are hoping and praying the big leftie gets ahold of a fastball this evening.
Against heaters, Schwarber owns a .330 xBA, .797 xSLG, .523 xwOBA, and a 65.9% hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. He also carries a run value of 12 against fastballs. Strider’s fastball has not graded out as above league average since 2023—and not above a whole number since 2022.
Want to read more about why I love Kyle Schwarber today? Click this link.
Reds vs. Royals Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run (+750) odds via BetOnline
Can the Italian Nightmare cash us big tonight?
I could sum this up in one sentence, but I will not do that to you.
Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino holds an elite rating today on Batters-Box.com. In 11 elite-rated matchups at home, he hits a home run 27% of the time. What has kept me off his other props is that he is currently riding an 11-game hitting streak.
That said, the big man is crushing 57% of Brady Singer’s pitch mix. The only question is how well he handles the sinker, which Singer throws 43% of the time. Fortunately, that pitch is graded below league average, which works in our favor.
This is more of an auto-play than anything else—elite rating, strong matchup against the arsenal, and an excellent price to go yard.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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