IF… IF Athletics starter Jeffrey Springs is on the bump this evening, we are taking this prop. He is expected to start, but it has not been confirmed. If he does not go, check out some of our other baseball write-ups on the site—always FREE, always TRANSPARENT.
Why bet on Zach Neto?
Anywho, Zach Neto is a go if Springs takes the mound. The Angels shortstop has a fantastic matchup against the struggling lefty. The sample size this season is small, but over the last two years, Neto owns a .348 average and .993 OPS against left-handed pitching. After going hitless on Sunday, he is primed for a bounce back at home. Today, he carries an elite Batters-Box rating: hit in 68% of games, two hits in 32%, and over this prop in 48%. That comes from a 25-game elite rating sample.
Springs has had an up-and-down season, with a 4.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP across 13 appearances. He is allowing 4.6 hits and two extra base hits per game. On Batters-Box, he draws poor ratings in ISO, hard contact, and ground ball percentage. He throws the fastball 42% of the time, and that pitch grades below league average. Against fastballs this season, Neto has a run value of one, .279 xBA, .749 xSLG, and .455 xwOBA, per Baseball Savant.
The other 58% of Springs’ pitches are slightly above average, but only by a few decimals. Against that mix, Neto still thrives. He may be the best bat in the Angels lineup against changeups. In a 63-pitch sample, he owns a run value of four, with a .462 average, 1.000 SLG, and .613 wOBA.
Given the price, Neto’s dominance against lefties, and the matchup-specific numbers, it is tough not to like his props—IF Springs is on the mound. IF!!
