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Orioles vs Twins: Odds & Predictions | May 7, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Orioles vs Twins: Gunnar Henderson is heating up, and the numbers are starting to show it. Today, he draws a pitcher whose arsenal plays directly into his strengths. With an elite Batters-Box.com rating and favorable splits, Henderson is in a prime spot to deliver.
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Last Month: 100-149-4 (+3.41u)
Last Week: 25-43 (-2.68u)
Orioles vs Twins Odds
Can Gunnar Henderson spark some life into this Orioles team?
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Runline
Orioles: +1.5 (-171)
Twins: -1.5 (+150)
Total
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
Moneyline
Orioles: +118
Twins: -130
Orioles vs Twins Best Bet
One of the most exciting players in baseball also happens to have an elite rating on Batters-Box.com today. Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson enters the day with the only elite rating in this matchup.
So far this season, after a very mediocre April, Henderson appears to be turning it around. With six hits, a double, and two runs in his first four games to start the month of May, this could be the month we see the young star we know and love. However, he still carries a .252 average with three home runs, five RBI, and a .719 OPS. When rated elite, Henderson records at least one hit 72 percent of the time, goes over this prop 53 percent of the time, and homers 21 percent of the time. That is over a 149-game sample size.
Today, he faces Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson, who holds a 4.03 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP. He allows around 33 percent hard contact, and his ground ball rate is poorly rated in average hitter matchups—which is ideal, as we want Henderson hitting line drives.
The Twins right-hander throws a fastball nearly 50 percent of the time. I am always drawn to pitchers who lean heavily on the fastball, especially in this spot. Henderson is batting .314 with a .905 OPS and a 169 wRC+ against fastballs this season. On top of that, the Orioles’ young star is hitting .364 with an .871 OPS and a 166 wRC+ against changeups. Those two pitches make up nearly 60 percent of Woods Richardson’s arsenal. Per FanGraphs, both pitches are rated below league average.
With how well Henderson is seeing the ball right now, and how well his strengths align with Woods Richardson’s tendencies, this feels like a great spot to back the Orioles shortstop. Hopefully, he can help turn this team around, because they certainly need it.
Best Bet: Gunnar Henderson o1.5 Total Bases (-105) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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