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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Odds & Predictions | April 7, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Valente Bellozo getting the start changes everything for this matchup. The Mets now face the slate’s weakest pitcher with a loaded, elite-rated lineup. This is a spot too good to ignore.
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Marlins vs Mets Odds
Can the Mets go off on the Marlins tonight?
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Runline
Marlins: +1.5 (+109)
Mets: -1.5 (-129)
Total
Over: 7 (-125)
Under: 7 (+105)
Moneyline
Marlins: +234
Mets: -263
Marlins vs Mets Odds Best Bet
This play would have made the best bets write-up if I had known Valente Bellozo was starting for the Marlins. Why does that matter? It is all that matters.
The Marlins’ 25-year-old right-hander holds the worst pitcher rating on the slate. He allows the second-highest hard contact rate, the highest average hitter matchup ISO, and the lowest ground ball rate among starters. When tagged with a poor rating, Bellozo has allowed a home run 77.78% of the time, 6+ hits 77.78% of the time, and 2+ walks 55.56% of the time—across a nine-game sample. On top of that, he led all starters last season in meatball rate at 13.9 per 100. Meatballs meaning home run-friendly pitches.
The Mets bring three elite-rated hitters into this matchup, with zero poor-rated bats. They also have no hitters above the league strikeout or ground ball rate. Batters-Box.com gives them the highest-rated lineup on the slate, and in my opinion, that profile is delicious. New York has averaged two runs per first five innings this season. A year ago, they averaged 2.68—and that was before adding Juan Soto to the mix. I love the price and the matchup here.
Sko Mets.
Best Bet: Mets First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (+100) at BetOnline)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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