Poland vs. France Eurobasket Betting: Can Poland produce more magic to reach Sunday’s final?

When the draw for the Eurobasket 2022 knockout stage was set, a semifinal showdown between Eurobasket 2017 finalists Serbia and Slovenia was in the cards. Instead, Friday’s first semi will feature France and Poland, a matchup that few would have envisioned.

Rudy Gobert and France reached the final four with consecutive overtime wins, an 87-86 win over Turkey in the round of 16 and a 93-85 quarterfinal win over Italy, who upset Nikola Jokic and Serbia in the round of 16.

Given that they have finished 3rd (the 2019 FIBA World Cup) and 2nd (the rescheduled 2020 Olympics last year) at the last two major international tournaments, France’s presence in the semis is not a major surprise.

They finished a disappointing 12th at Eurobasket 2017 but were 5th, 2nd, 1st, and 3rd in the previous editions under coach Vincent Collet, who has been at the helm since 2009.

The same can’t be said for Poland, who scored a mild upset of Ukraine in the round of 16 then produced a seismic shocker by sending Luka Doncic and Slovenia packing in the quarters on Wednesday.

This will be Poland’s first appearance in the Eurobasket semis since 1971, and a win will see them reach the final for the first time since 1963, when they hosted the tournament and lost to the Soviet Union in the title game.

Poland vs. France Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Poland (5-2 at Eurobasket 2022, 3rd in Group D) vs. France (5-2 at Eurobasket 2022, 3rd in Group B)
• Venue & Location: Mercedes-Benz Arena (Berlin, Germany)
• Date: Friday, September 16, 2022
• Game Time: 11:15 a.m. Eastern Time (5:15 p.m. Berlin time)
• How to Watch Poland vs. France in the U.S.: ESPN+

Tournament Results

Poland

• 99-84 W vs. Czech Republic (Group D)
• 89-59 L vs. Finland (Group D)
• 85-76 W vs. Israel (Group D)
• 75-69 W vs. Netherlands (Group D)
• 96-69 L vs. Serbia (Group D)
• 94-86 W vs. Ukraine (round of 16)
• 90-87 W vs. Slovenia (QF)

France

• 76-63 L vs. Germany (Group B)
• 77-73 W vs. Lithuania (Group B)
• 78-74 W vs. Hungary (Group B)
• 81-68 W vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina (Group B)
• 88-82 L vs. Slovenia (Group B)
• 87-86 W (OT) vs. Turkey (round of 16)
• 93-85 W (OT) vs. Italy (QF)

Poland vs. France Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from other legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Spread

• Poland +8.5 (-111)
• France -8.5 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 158.5 (-115)
• Under 158.5 (-111)

Moneyline

• Poland +330
• France -480

Poland vs. France Prediction and Betting Picks

Poland vs. France Prediction: France to win

Poland vs. France Betting Picks: Poland +8.5 (Best Value: -110 at BetMGM) & Poland/France over 158.5 (Best Value: -115 at BetOnline & Bovada Sportsbook)

France’s defense, especially their perimeter defense, will be the key to how this game plays out.

Poland made 20 of 41 threes against Ukraine, and perimeter production was also at the center of their upset of Slovenia.

In the first half, they made 9 of 19 from outside on the way to taking a 19-point halftime lead. Missing all 11 of their threes in the third quarter helped Slovenia get back into the game, but they hit four threes, all at key moments, in the fourth as they rallied then closed out the win.

In their seven Eurobasket 2022 games thus far, opponents are shooting just 33.2 percent from three (68 for 205) against France.

Game-by-Game Three-Point Defensive Statistics for France at Eurobasket 2022

• Germany: 10 for 32 (31.3%)
• Lithuania: 7 for 23 (30.4%)
• Hungary: 11 for 29 (37.9%)
• Bosnia-Herzegovina: 6 for 25 (24%)
• Slovenia: 8 for 27 (29.6%)
• Turkey: 14 for 36 (38.9%)
• Italy: 12 for 33 (36.4%)

France lost by just six points to Slovenia despite Luka Doncic’s 47-point game, thanks to Doncic going 6 for 11 from deep while his teammates combined to go 2 for 16.

Against Italy, France found themselves in peril because Italy made six of ten shots from outside in the third and fourth quarters after going 5 for 18 in the first half.

But in OT, allowing just one made three in five attempts in the extra period helped them pull away and pull out the win.

After following an impressive performance against Ukraine by shutting down Doncic–who was 5 for 15 for 14 points, turned the ball over six times, and fouled out with three minutes left–and upsetting Slovenia, Poland certainly won’t be intimidated by favored France.

But as the old saying goes, defense wins championships. Defense has come through for France numerous times at Eurobasket 2022, and it will do so again in this matchup.

If France can keep Poland from getting too hot from three, Poland will find it hard to hit 80 points. And if they don’t score at least 80 points, they likely won’t win.

Slovenia is the only team to have hit that mark against France in regulation, and as mentioned, that happened because Luka scored over half of their points.

I do think Poland will keep it close enough to cover, and late free throws and extra possessions will help the over cash. However, France will ride a strong defensive performance to move on to face the winner of Germany vs. Spain in Sunday’s final.