Kentucky Oaks Full Card Analysis (5/2/2025)

The racing action from Churchill Downs on Friday features the Longines Kentucky Oaks. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!

Full Card Analysis

Bet all of today’s selections with signup bonuses and promotions at BetOnline.

Kentucky Oaks- Full Card Analysis

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 11:00 AM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $127k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

• #3 SHRED THE GNAR (5-2): Top pick. This one may be all alone on the front end.

• #4 CHASTEN (2-1): Major Player. Brad Cox is 28% off this type of layoff and this one has races fast enough.

• #1 ANONIMA (3-1): Contender. May be able to work out the right trip without a lot of other speed in the race.

• #9 WINFINITY (12-1): Contender. This one is bred to go long and the trainer outperforms his stats when bringing a horse in off a freshening.

Selections: 3 – 4 – 1 – 9

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 11:29 AM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

• #3 SAUCIER (6-1): Top Pick. Ran an absolutely smashing debut speed figure that would get the job done here.

• #9 SALTED (3-1): Major Player. Productive recent form. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.

• #4 DEFIANT LASS (4-1): Major Player. Second time out this one popped a big number. Won’t take much more improvement to find the winner’s circle.

• #10 RAGHBA (6-1): Fringe Contender. Ran at this level last out. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 3 – 9 – 4 – 10

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 11:58 AM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 15 runners.

• #11 VIVALDI (5-1): Prime Win Player. Fits well with this group and Brown goes to Prat for the ride.

• #10 SOME PERFORMANCE (9-2): Contender. Euro shipper making the second start for Walsh.

• #12 MOON CHANNEL (6-1): Contender. Productive first race with a good trainer makes this one interesting.

• #1 ELKO COUNTY (6-1): Longshot play of the day. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.

Selections: 11 – 10 – 12 – 1

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 12:29 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $127k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

• #3 STABLE CURRENCY (7-2): Prime Win Player. Proven competitor at this configuration. Race sets up perfectly.

• #1 BILYANA (5-1): Fringe Contender. Ran a race that would compete here last out and drops in class.

• #9 MINDY’S UNION (8-1): Worth a look. Trainer Schultz is 19% second off the layoff.

• #10 FOIE GRAS (6-1): Longshot play of the day. Expect this one to be able to carry the distance. Potential to get the pace of the race flow. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.

Selections: 3 – 1 – 9 – 10

Kentucky Oaks Undercard

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 1:03 PM ET; Edgewood Stakes presented by Accenture $600k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 8 runners.

• #5 NITROGEN (8-5): Top pick. Grade 1 winner should outclass the likes of these.

• #2 VIXEN (3-1): Major Player. Productive recent form. Should take a liking to the race shape.

• #4 ATERRADORA (15-1): Worth a look. Hit the board in 4 of the last 5 starts.

• #7 LUSH LIPS (7-2): Fringe Contender. Grade 3 winner who showed an ability to run beyond the par number for this race.

Selections: 5 – 2 – 4 – 7

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 1:42 PM ET; Alysheba Stakes presented by Sentient Jet $750k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 6 runners.

• #4 FIERCENESS (6-5): Top pick. Looks good based on the 108 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #2 LOCKED (2-1): Major Player. Potentially cycling to a top performance. Should take a liking to the race shape.

• #5 MOST WANTED (7-2): Contender. Previous success in similar race types.

• #3 HALL OF FAME (4-1): Contender. Likely to win the battle if challenged in the stretch. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 4 – 2 – 5 – 3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 2:23 PM ET; Fasig-Tipton La Troienne Stakes $1000k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 7 runners.

• #2 THORPEDO ANNA (2-5): Best bet of the card. She is a beast. She’s a bad win bet because of the price, but she’s as close to a lock as they come. Bet today’s best bet with industry leading rebates on BetOnline.

• #5 RANDOMIZED (6-1): Contender. Grade 1 winning horse with numbers that fit this race.

• #4 RAGING SEA (9-2): Major Player. Potential to have this pace fall just right. This one’s a fighter in the late stages.

• #7 FREE LIKE A GIRL (15-1): Fringe Contender. Has finished second to the favorite in the last 2 starts. Make it 3 and get a nice price underneath.

Selections: 2 – 5 – 4 – 7

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 3:12 PM ET; Modesty Stakes presented by Veritas Prime $400k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 8 runners.

• #7 SHE FEELS PRETTY (6-5): Prime Win Player. Stamina to outlast the competition. Race sets up perfectly.

• #2 GIMME A NOTHER (7-2): Contender. 2nd American start and should take a step forward for Motion.

• #3 SEGESTA (9-2): Worth a look. Grade 1 placed in previous efforts.

• #8 SAFFRON MOON (3-1): Major Player. Multiple races above the race par for the top turf connections in the game.

Selections: 7 – 2 – 3 – 8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 4:07 PM ET; Eight Belles Stakes presented by Sysco $600k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners.

• #5 VERITY (3-1): Prime Win Player. Stamina to outlast the competition. Looks good based on the 83 speed rating which is among the top in the group.

• #7 MENDELA (15-1): Fringe Contender. Dominant maiden win with a speed number that fits in this group.

• #10 IMPULSE BUY (7-2): Worth a look. Stakes winner over the track.

• #9 BOURBON MEMORY (8-1): Fringe Contender. Trainer is 22% switching from synthetic to dirt.

Selections: 5 – 7 – 10 – 9

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 4:51 PM ET; Unbridled Sidney Stakes presented by Cygames $400k; 5 1/2 F Turf; Field of 9 runners.

• #4 AG BULLET (8-5): Top pick. Stamina to outlast the competition. May be speed of speed.

• #9 QUEEN MAXIMA (2-1): Major Player. Coming out of a grade 3 winning effort.

• #5 EPONA’S HOPE (6-1): Underneath. Will likely set the pace with some pressure. Could hold on for a slice.

• #1 CLOUDWALKER (20-1): Underneath. Has never missed the board at Churchill Downs.

Selections: 4 – 9 – 5 – 1

The Kentucky Oaks

Kentucky Oaks Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 5:51 PM ET; Longines Kentucky Oaks $1500k; 1 1/8 M Dirt; Field of 14 runners.

• #7 LA CARA (6-1): Top Pick. Grade 1 winner with strong speed figures at 6-1. I’ll take that thank you!

• #11 GOOD CHEER (6-5): Major Player. Undefeated in 6 starts. Tough to get around this one.

• #8 FIVE G (12-1): Major Player. Puts together really consistent speed figures.

• #14 QUIETSIDE (8-1): Fringe Contender. Horse is 2 for 2 since Jose Ortiz jumped aboard.

Selections: 7 – 11 – 8 – 14

Kentucky Oaks After Card

Churchill Downs will feature two races after the Oaks for those who need a little more action at the end of the marathon day.

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 12

Post Time: 6:27 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $134k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 12 runners.

• #7 RESILIENCE (7-2): Top Pick. Drops out of the Belmont Stakes from last year. Don’t love the layoff but the trainer is 21%.

• #10 NOT THIS BOY (4-1): Major Player. Class dropper off a massive figure.

• #6 INTO PLEASURE (9-2): Worth a look. Potentially ready to hit a top number. Previous success in similar race types.

• #11 KING RUSSELL (12-1): Underneath.  Improving in each of his last 3 starts.

Selections: 7 – 10 – 6 – 11

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 13

Post Time: 7:02 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 14 runners.

• #8 TETIAROA (8-1): Top pick. Total trainer play as Bauer has massive numbers when he places horse like this.

• #10 CHACHING CHACHING (7-2): Major Player. Should still be running strong in the closing stages. Speed figures match this group well.

• #9 SPEIGHTER WOMAN (10-1): Contender. Trainer, Lovell, is a strong conditioner.

• #2 ORAIA (6-1): Underneath. Popped a huge number on debut.

Selections: 8 – 10 – 9 – 2

Continuing Kentucky Oaks and Derby Coverage

Betting News will continue to cover all the action from Churchill Downs. Check back throughout the week for full card analysis of Thurby, Kentucky Oaks, and the Derby.

Already have your Derby horse? Check out our cheat sheet to make you the smartest person in the room on Derby day. Impress all your friends with your handicapping knowledge of every horse in the race.