Kentucky Derby Savant- Be the Smartest Person in the Room on Derby Day

Want to impress your friends on Kentucky Derby Day without memorizing racing forms or learning what a Beyer Speed Figure is?

You’re in the right place. This guide will make you a Kentucky Derby savant—even if you normally pick horses by name, color, or how cool the jockey looks in the silks.

The Kentucky Derby Savant

In this article, you’ll get a quick, confident overview of every Kentucky Derby contender.

For each horse, I’ll give you a smart reason why they could win—and just as importantly, a clever reason why they won’t.

Whether you’re looking to back your pick with real insight or just want some well-timed trash talk for your Derby party, this cheat sheet will have you ready to be the smartest person in the room on Derby day.

Kentucky Derby Contenders

With posts yet to be drawn and the field still up the air, these horses are ordered based on their odds on BetOnline as of the writing of this piece.

Kentucky Derby 1st Tier Odds

Journalism (+340)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Journalism is the absolute class of this group.  He’s 3 for 3 against other top Derby contenders and his last two Beyer speed figures are good enough to beat anything in this group.

The Case Against

McCarthy has only saddled one Derby horse in his 11 year solo career (finishing 9th) plus Journalism managed to find traffic in a 5 horse field in the Santa Anita Derby. What kind of traffic will he be able to make for himself against 19 runners?

Sovereignty (+700)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

This horse was doing everything right until the Florida Derby including an incredible performance off the layoff in the Fountain of Youth. The Florida Derby was disappointing but his regular rider was injured. Junior’s back and knows how to ride this one.

The Case Against

Sure Alvarado wasn’t aboard in the Florida Derby, but Franco’s no slouch. The track and the race seemed ready made for him to get the job done and he just couldn’t do it. If he can’t win under near ideal circumstances, then what’s going to happen in the Kentucky Derby?

Sandman (+1000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Sandman hit a new speed figure top in the Arkansas Derby and may just be rounding into form. This Kentucky Derby looks like it might just be getting plenty of pace up front and Sandman’s got the closing kick to blow by them late.

The Case Against

The horse is 1 for 5 in graded stakes tries. With the exception of the Southwest Stakes, which heavily favored his running style, he has never paired back to back speed figure tops. He’s going to bounce off the 99 last figure and that won’t get the job done.

Tappan Street (+1200)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Winner of the prep race that has produced more Kentucky Derby winner’s than any other (Florida Derby). The horse only has 3 races under his belt, but Justify showed the racing world that talent doesn’t need 6 races to prep for the Derby. Journalism ran a, 87 speed figure in start number 3. Tappan Street ran a 94. Who’s the more talented horse?

The Case Against

The Florida Derby was a soft field this year. Sure he won, but he beat a horse that should have won the race with a perfect setup and just didn’t want any part of it. The third place finisher was picking up 2nds and 3rds in restricted races until he ran a speed and fade in the Fountain of Youth.

Rodriguez (+1400)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Bet against California speed at your own peril. Bob Baffert returns to the Kentucky Derby after a long hiatus. One of his runners, a speed ball with the ability to clear off with muddy form. I remember throwing out a horse just like this back in 2021 when Medina Spirit wired the field. Bet against a two-time Triple Crown trainer. Go ahead, I dare you.

The Case Against

You’re taking the winner of the Wood Memorial to win the Kentucky Derby? All I have to do to find that is to dust off the standard definition VHS tape of the 2000 Kentucky Derby when Fusaichi Pegasus won the race. You can’t trust anything that comes out of the winter at Aqueduct and that includes Rodriguez.

Burnham Square (+1400)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Six races, each with a better Beyer figure than the last. Wilkes has been bringing this horse along slowly with this target all along. The Blue Grass was a warning shot, this horse is taking another step forward here and will show up all the flashy colts that have already peaked.

The Case Against

You think the Wood’s been a poor prep? The last Blue Grass winner to win the Derby was in 1991. The improvement is noble, but all good things must come to an end and the glass slipper is about to come off this potential Cinderella story.

Kentucky Derby 2nd Tier Odds

Luxor Cafe (+2000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Watch the turn of foot from the #11 (yellow silks, pink hat) and tell me you’ve seen any American horse kick clear of the competition like that. The Japanese have won nearly every major race around the world and they’ve had their sights set on the Kentucky Derby. In a field with a lot of questions marks, it is their time to take the crown.

The Case Against

The past horses that have come from Japan have been heralded prior to getting here. Forever Young proved to be an absolute monster and he couldn’t get the job done. If they couldn’t win with a tiger, why should we expect them to win with a tabby cat?

East Avenue (+2000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

The horse has always had talent. He started his career with 2 of the most impressive 2 year old races of 2024. Sure he fell off form a bit at the Breeders’ Cup and to start 2025 but you Risen Star for show and Kentucky Derby for dough. The Blue Grass shows that the ship has been righted and the Juvenile favorite is back.

The Case Against

Assuming I want to believe that the Blue Grass is a form reversal, he still couldn’t get the job done with a fairly uncontested lead. Now you won’t him to hold speed for an extra 1/8th of a mile against other confirmed speeds. He’s going to burn up and may just cross the wire before they run the Belmont Stakes in mid June.

Citizen Bull (+2000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

The two year old champ is ready to begin his reign as the three year old champ. He’s sent out by 2 time Triple Crown winning training Bob Baffert and despite a poor showing in the Santa Anita Derby, he didn’t need the race for anything other than to keep fresh. Nice little workout against other horses, he’ll be ready to roll at a fat price.

The Case Against

You’re allowed to need a race off a layoff, but this horse just folded like a cheap lawn chair in the Santa Anita Derby. This horse does his best running within a length of the lead and if you think he’s getting a soft pace in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, well you must have lost your mind.

Baeza (+2000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

This is the 8 seed no one wants to play. His fourth consecutive new top Beyer in the Santa Anita Derby puts him only 1 point behind Journalism who is favored. If he draws in the whole world should be on notice because he’ll have forward placing and among the most upside of any horse in the group.

The Case Against

Everybody loves their wise guy Derby play, but let’s be real about what this horse is. He’s only raced 4 times and three of those were against horses who had never won a race. It was a nice little effort against Journalism, but a Derby winner has to fight off that late run.

Tiztastic (+2200)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Bet against Steve Asmussen and you will have lost at least 10,000 times. This is the winningest trainer in all of North America with a horse who just popped a top Beyer en route to a Louisiana Derby victory. His trip is going to be perfect for the hot pace in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

The Case Against

On figures this horse is a cut below the top flight. Asmussen is undoubtedly a great trainer, but I wouldn’t bet a maiden who was 0 for 26 lifetime which just so happens to be the record of his horses in the Kentucky Derby.

Coal Battle (+2500)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

The horse had rattled off four in a row until the Arkansas Derby, but let’s be honest, that wasn’t the target race. They tried to drop him back a little bit further and he didn’t fire. Now the connections know the exact run he needs to make in order to get the job done. The Arkansas Derby will be a fail up moment for this young colt.

The Case Against

The Arkansas Derby was a chance to show that you’re aren’t just a nice southern circuit listed stakes type. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love a horse like that in my barn, but this ain’t the Springboard Mile, its the Kentucky Derby.

Final Gambit (+2500)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

The 90 Beyer in the last race was a light bulb moment for this horse. The sky is the limit for this runner who has produced back to back wins from way off the pace. This late run style will be a gift with all of the confirmed speed.

The Case Against

The figure was nice and the draw off impressive in the Jeff Ruby, but we’re talking about synthetic. These tracks can often play to horses that like to come from the clouds and the track was tilted toward the closers that day. You want to be 11th in the Derby around the far turn? I’ve seen less traffic on Interstate 35W during rush hour.

American Promise (+2800)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

There is one thing that cannot be underestimated in the Kentucky Derby and that is experience. With 9 starts, there is no one in this field more experienced than this runner. But can he win the Derby? Well I think his daddy, Justify did alright en route to the Triple Crown.

The Case Against

Let’s pretend we only care about real prep races and throw out the Virginia Derby. You’re going to take a horse who finished no better than 5th and was beaten by a combined 19.5 length in his other 2 preps? Would you like to light your money on fire or can I do the honors for you?

Kentucky Derby 3rd Tier Odds

Chunk of Gold (+3300)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

The horse paired up Beyer tops in back to back grade 2 Kentucky Derby preps. Loveberry almost stole a Derby with Two Phil’s back in 2023. Loveberry will strike again and have this horse perfectly placed to make a a run at the roses.

The Case Against

Winner’s win and this horse hasn’t won since his debut effort. Since then his 3 stakes tries have produced nothing but second places finishes. Some of those not even that close. Good luck asking a horse to get their first stakes win in a race of this magnitude.

Publisher (+3300)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Publisher is a late developer. In the last 3 starts he has improved his speed figure, finishing position, and beaten lengths. This horse is just starting to round into form. Why would Flavien Prat stay on this maiden if he didn’t feel this horse was the goods.

The Case Against

Despite the improvement in recent races, he is still fairly light on figures. More importantly, this horse is a maiden! That’s right this horse has never won a race in his life. He would have to be the first horse ever to break his maiden in the Derby and his number don’t suggest he’s that talented.

Grande (+3300)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Grande was 2 for 2. He very well could have been 3 for 3 if he didn’t take a super wide trip all the way around the Aqueduct oval. The horse is lightly raced with an early track record of success. He’s out of Curlin so distance isn’t much of a concern and Todd Pletcher has won the Derby before.

The Case Against

Being a bit wide and finishing a well beaten second in one of the least productive Derby preps hardly instills confidence. Pletcher is a great trainer, but has been far better at getting horses to the race than actually winning it.

Built (+4000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

The Louisiana Derby was not a great effort, but the horse was forward in a race that had a clear closing race flow. With this race in mind the horse has been off since that race and the trainer does some of his best work when he lays horses off for over a month.

The Case Against

Even on his best day this horse can’t keep up with these. Even trying top jocks like Saez and Ortiz wasn’t enough to wake this one up. Asking  a horse to make up 10 speed points from his best effort in the Derby, well that’s a gamble I’ll let you put your money on.

Admire Daytona (+4000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

The Japanese path to the Derby has gotten stronger every year and they’re going to get a Derby at some point. Everyone is so focused on Luxor Cafe, but this horse only lost to him by a nose in Tokyo last November. His form has been backed up by a stellar effort in the UAE Derby and the blue grass state is about to get an international breakthrough.

The Case Against

The UAE Derby has exactly 0 past Kentucky Derby winners. The horses just don’t ship well out of the Middle East. The last time this horse tried to take on Luxor Cafe in February he was beaten by 3 1/4 and Luxor Cafe isn’t even that strong compared to other Japanese runners that have been sent over in the past. Paper tiger alert.

Kentucky Derby 4th Tier Odds

Owen Almighty (+5000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

Churchill Downs can be a tricky surface and this runner already has a win over the track. He has a forward running style that is going to allow him to avoid traffic in the Derby and when he gets the lead early he can be tough to beat. His Blue Grass was bad but he was against the flow.

The Case Against

The Blue Grass was his first chance to stretch out beyond a mile and 1/16 and he was abysmal. The trainer didn’t even want this horse in the Kentucky Derby, but the owners had Derby fever and forced his hand. How can you back a horse the trainer doesn’t even believe in?

Flying Mohawk (+5000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

The last three speed figures have steadily improved suggesting that this horse is just progressing slowly but consistently. The numbers are light but this horse has never had an opportunity to run on the dirt. The move to synthetic from turf produced a new top so this horse just needs one more surface switch to make the lightbulb come on.

The Case Against

If this horse was a Derby horse he would have already run on dirt. The fact that he spent the first 5 races of his career on turf before getting his Derby points on synthetic means that this horse always has been. and always will be a turf horse. The owners will enjoy being a part of the pageantry, but do they really think they’re contenders?

Neoequos (+5000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

This runner isn’t short on experience. His 7 races make him among the most raced runners in this field. The Florida Derby is better than it looks as he attended the pace with a closing race flow. The trainer has a net positive ROI off this type of layoff which means he hits with nice prices.

The Case Against

The horse has been 3 twice against better Florida circuit horses. If he can’t break through that group, what’s he supposed to do here. His trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is elite in Florida, but leaves something to be desired outside of the Sunshine State.

Render Judgement (+10000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

An unheralded horse trained by Kenny McPeek being totally overlooked on the first Saturday in May. Are we talking about 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan or Render Judgement? McPeek strikes again with a horse who has already won at Churchill Downs.

The Case Against

This ain’t no Mystik Dan and even Mystik Dan didn’t do much the rest of the 2024 season. This one has failed to be within 4 lengths of any winner since breaking his maiden in  October of 2024. Can you get odds on this horse to finish last?

California Burrito (+10000)

The Kentucky Derby Winner

This guy has never finished out of the exacta at Churchill Downs and was shipped in to the track before many of these horses meaning that he is already getting acclimated to the unique surface. He’s playing with a bit of home field advantage.

The Case Against

The horse’s best dirt speed figure is over 20 points slower than the top end of the market. It’s a parimutuel game so your money on slow horses means bigger payouts for me. Go ahead and bet it all on him, I could use a little extra juice on a horses with an actual shot.

And You’re Off to the Kentucky Derby!

There you have it—every Kentucky Derby horse sized up with just enough insight to make you sound like a regular railbird. Whether you’re riding high on a 20-1 shot or just there for the mint juleps and fancy hats, you now have the ammo to talk Derby like a pro.

So go ahead—drop some knowledge, stir up a little debate, and enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports with the smug confidence of someone who actually knows what they’re talking about. And if you end up cashing a ticket (or just want to brag about calling the longshot), be sure to tag me on X @handicappingT3 and cash those tickets!

Happy Derby Day!