Kentucky Derby Post Pace Analysis

The Kentucky Derby is the most exciting two minutes in all of sports. @HandicappingT3 breaks down post positions and pace to help you find a Kentucky Derby winner.

Kentucky Derby Points System

Back in 2013, the Kentucky Derby world got a major shake-up. Churchill Downs opted to move away from the graded stakes earnings model for earning a spot in the race in favor of a prep race circuit. In this new series called the Road to the Kentucky Derby, horses earn qualifying points based on finishing position in each event. The top 20 horses on this circuit earn spots in the Derby gate.

The result of the change has been dramatic. Since the highest points races are run at 9 furlongs or longer, the prep race model has eliminated true sprinters making the race which often led to ridiculous pace scenarios. Since 2013 the race has become far more formful with a few notable exceptions.

Given the change, our analysis will only include runnings of the race since 2013.

The Kentucky Derby Starting Gate

In 2020 the Kentucky Derby made another major change, introducing a custom 20 horse starting gate. Previously the race used a standard gate for posts 1-15. Posts 16-20 had to break from the auxiliary gate. This gate was essentially trailered on to the main gate creating a large gap between posts 15 & 16. The major problem with the large gate is that it was too big to lineup straight across the track meaning that the inside posts actually had to veer right to avoid running straight into the rail.

The new 20 horse gate allows a much fairer start for all entrants. It was decided in the interest of a large enough data set that races in the points era would be included regardless of which gate was used.

Post Position and Pace

Two of the more important factors in the Kentucky Derby are pace setup and post position. However, these items are often discussed independently of one another. “No horse can win from the 17 hole.” you’ll hear railbirds cry. Others will grab the ear of anyone that will listen to talk about how the pace will be too fast for the speed balls to hold on. Although their may be elements of truth in both statements it is impossible to examine these two factors independently. The reality is that a good Derby trip is the perfect confluence of post and pace.

In this article we will explore how different post positions have faired with certain pace types since 2013.

Historical Kentucky Derby Analysis

Since 2013 there have been 227 Kentucky Derby runners. Those runners were divided into two categories- beaten lengths at the 6 furlong mark and post position. Finally, we examined where each horse finished in the race.

In the image above you can see that the data is most reliable for horses in the 0-3 beaten lengths and 6-10 beaten lengths categories. This is due to the larger samples in these particular pace setups. Any results coming from other positions may be subject to small sample sizes and should be analyzed with caution.

Winning Profiles

In the 12 years since the Derby switched to the points system there is one emerging trend. Speed is holding. Nine of the 12 winners have been within 0-3 lengths at the 6 furlong mark.  The only 3 exceptions being Orb (2013), Rich Strike (2022) and Mage (2023).

Of those runners near the front of the pack that have won, the most productive post have been 5-10 with 5 winners. This post position grouping boasts a slightly higher win percentage than front runners from posts 11-15 by less than a percent.

2025 Kentucky Derby Hopefuls

By my estimation no horses fit either of these post position categories in 2025 which leaves things pretty wide open. Here’s a look at the remaining winning profiles:

• Posts 16-20 between 10 and 15 beaten lengths 1/10 (1o% winners)
• Post 11-15 between 10 and 15 beaten lengths 1/12 (8% winners)
• Post 1-4 within 3 beaten lengths: 1/15 (7% winners)
• Post 5-10 between 6 and 10 beaten lengths: 1/30 (3% winners)

If we assume that history will repeat itself with a post pace combination, that would reduce the possible winners of the race based on my pace calculations to:

1. #17 Sandman
2. #19 Chunk of Gold
3. #13 Publisher
4. #14 Tiztastic
5. #1 Citizen Bull
6. #2 Neoeqous
7. #4 Rodriguez
8. #6 Admire Daytona
9. #7 Luxor Cafe

Kentucky Derby In the Money Profiles

Given that none of the most predominant winning profiles are strongly represented in this race, maybe you are looking for profiles that hit the board to find your winner.

Similar to the winning profiles. The most dangerous spot to be has been on the lead from the middle posts. However, with no runners in 2025 fitting that mold, let’s take a look at where the other dangerous places to hit the board have been.

• Posts 1-4 with over 15 lengths to make up in the stretch: 2/5 (40% in the money)
• Posts 1-4 between 10 and 15 beaten lengths: 2/8 (25% in the money)
• Posts 1-4 within 3 lengths of the lead: 3/15 (20% in the money)
• Posts 16-20 between 10 and 15 beaten lengths: 2/10 (20% in the money)

Although only hitting at 17%, posts 5-10 beaten between 6-10 lengths at the six furlong mark has produced the highest volume of board hitters. Five horses have hit the board from this category.

2025 Kentucky Derby Hopefuls

Here are the top contenders from the top board hitting categories in 2025 based on my pace calculations.

1. #3 Final Gambit
2. #1 Citizen Bull
3. #2 Neoequos
4. #4 Rodriguez
5. #17 Sandman
6. #19 Chunk of Gold
7. #6 Admire Daytona*
8. #7 Luxor Cafe*

*The two Japanese runners qualify because they both project to get a running profile that has produced the most in the money performances.

Kentucky Derby Average Final Position

Perhaps you’re a bit skeptical of the results. Making grandiose judgements about a horse’s performance because one prior horse won from there may not move the needle for you. If you’re looking for a larger data set, let’s take a look at the average finishing position from each of these profiles.

2025 Derby field by Average Final Position

Here’s a look at the 2025 field and where they project. In each box, the number at the bottom represents the average finishing position (AVP) of all past horses within the category.

Based on the image above, the most likely winners of the race would appear to be the #13 Final Gambit (AVP: 7.1), #6 Admire Daytona (AVP: 8.9), and #7 Luxor Cafe (AVP: 8.9).

Other’s worth considering would be #13 Publisher, #14 Tiztastic, #17 Sandman, #19 Chunk of Gold, and #9 Burnham Square. All of these horses have profiles that suggest they fall below an average finish position of 10.

Worth noting is that we have never seen a profile like the projected pace of #11 Flying Mohawk and #15 Render Judgement. However, it is worth noting that the posts just inside under similar pace setups have the lowest rating at an AVP of 5.

Continuing Derby Coverage

Betting News will continue to cover all the action from Churchill Downs. Check back throughout the week for full card analysis of Thurby, Kentucky Oaks, and the Derby.

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