Kentucky Derby Full Card Analysis (5/3/2025)

The racing action from Churchill Downs on Saturday features the Kentucky Derby. @HandicappingT3 has all the Churchill Downs picks for the entire card!

Full Card Analysis

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Kentucky Derby Undercard

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 11:00 AM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 12 runners.

• #11 COFFEE TALK (4-1): Top Pick. Trainer is 24% off the layoff and this one is the only runner with a race that is supposed to win at this level.

• #9 BOURBON SOCIETY (5-1): Contender. Ultra consistent speed figures. You know what you’re getting here.

• #12 CHILLAX (5-1): Contender. Bill Mott sends this one out for the third start after a much improved second try.

• #10 KNICKS GATE (15-1): Underneath in Verticals. Bred for the distance. Can take a step forward with Ortiz aboard.

Selections: 11 – 9 – 12 – 10

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 11:32 AM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $134k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

• #10 GENEROUS LOVER (7-2): Top Pick. Should be quickest from the gates and in great position to work out the trip.

• #7 NORMANDY QUEEN (9-2): Contender. Showed talent on debut and went off form but the last race suggests this one may be back.

• #8 LEMON MUFFIN (5-1): Contender. Coming out of a race in which both the winner and 3rd place finishers won their next race.

• #9 DESERT RHAPSODY (12-1): Contender. The two graded stakes were too deep for this one, but returns to find her friends.

Selections: 10 – 7 – 8 – 9

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 12:05 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $127k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

• #2 BRACKET BUSTER (6-1): Longshot play of the day. Top Pick. Two lengths short of a graded stakes win last time out. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.

• #5 GOAL ORIENTED (4-1): Contender. Bred for distance with a huge number on debut.

• #11 SORCERER’S SILVER (8-1): Contender. Never been less than 7 lengths ahead of the competition at the end of the race.

• #6 RAPTURE (7-2): Contender. Posted a strong 94 speed figure last out. Improving with each start.

Selections: 2 – 5 – 11 – 6

Kentucky Derby Day Stakes Races

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 12:38 PM ET; Knicks Go Overnight Stakes presented by L&N Federal Credit Union $200k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 14 runners.

• #9 LIBERAL ARTS (3-1): Top Pick. Grade 3 winner over the track for Brad Cox and Luis Saez.

• #6 KUPUNA (5-1): Contender. Jockey upgrade to BJ Hernandez but 7 for 8 at Churchill with 0 wins.

• #7 BEST ACTOR (15-1): Underneath in Verticals. Graded stakes winner with multiple efforts good enough to win here.

• #12 PATRIOT SPIRIT (8-1): Underneath in Verticals. Drops out of graded stakes and projects to be forward.

Selections: 9 – 6 – 7 – 12

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 1:12 PM ET; Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes $750k; 1 M Turf; Field of 10 runners.

• #6 SACRED WISH (3-1): Top Pick. Grade 1 winner who is always there at the end.

• #10 SPECIAL WAN (5-2): Top Contender. Nice step forward in the Honey Fox. Top figure at today’s distance.

• #7 TAX IMPLICATIONS (5-1): Contender. Last race top figure for Brown and Prat.

• #5 FIVE TOWNS (10-1): Contender. Nearly won the Noble Damsel at Aqueduct.

Selections: 6 – 10 – 7 – 5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 1:53 PM ET; Pat Day Mile Stakes presented by SAP $600k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners.

• #5 GATE TO WIRE (6-1): Top Pick. Hot pace may just allow this one to trip out for Prat and Pletcher.

• #7 MACHO MUSIC (12-1): Contender. Improving over the last 3 races and hitting a new top ability level last out.

• #6 GAMING (3-1): Underneath in Verticals. The Hot Springs suggests this one may be coming back to form.

• #4 SMOKEN WICKED (12-1): Underneath in Verticals. 1 Win and a 2nd at Churchill Downs.

Selections: 5 – 7 – 6 – 4

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 2:38 PM ET; Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes presented by Accenture $600k; 5 1/2 F Turf; Field of 12 runners.

• #3 NOBALS (6-1): Top Pick. Grade 1 winner with a trainer hitting 35% off the layoff.

• #7 THINK BIG (4-1): Contender. Improving with back to back wins, including a Grade 2 stakes.

• #8 ROGUE LIGHTNING (7-2): Underneath in Verticals. 2nd time in America. Promising that they gave this one to Prat who returns to ride.

• #5 ARREST ME RED (6-1): Underneath in Verticals. Three wins and a loss by a head in the last 4 races.

Selections: 3 – 7 – 8 – 5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 3:23 PM ET; Churchill Downs Stakes presented by Ford $1000k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 11 runners.

• #11 MULLIKIN (7-2): Top Pick. Six straight in the trifecta and 2 for 2 over the Churchill dirt.

• #7 MINDFRAME (3-1): Contender. Never worse than 2nd in 5 career starts for Pletcher and Ortiz.

• #3 BOOK’EM DANNO (8-1): Contender. Consistent runner who could get the best of the pace setup here.

• #2 BANISHING (5-1): Contender. Eight straight exacta finishes with 3 consecutive figures over par.

Selections: 11 – 7 – 3 – 2

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 4:06 PM ET; American Turf Stakes presented by Ford $1000k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 18 runners.

• #7 ZULU KINGDOM (4-1): Top Pick. Chad Brown and Flavien Prat with a proven graded stakes winner.

• #10 IRON MAN CAL (9-2): Contender. Grade 1 placed with increasing figures. The last race is good enough to win here.

• #3 NEW CENTURY (3-1): Contender. Irad hops aboard for Walsh who boasts a 21% strike rate with horses new to his barn.

• #5 TEST SCORE (10-1): Underneath in Verticals. Grade stakes winner last out with improving figures.

Selections: 7 – 10 – 3 – 5

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 4:50 PM ET; Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson Winery $1000k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 16 runners.

• #1 SCYLLA (4-1): Top Pick. Horse is unbeaten at Churchill in 4 starts.

• #8 WAYS AND MEANS (3-1): Contender. Prat chooses this one over the #9 with figures that fit.

• #2 KOPION (8-1): Contender. Grade 1 winner that has a last race that dusts the field.

• #9 EMERY (6-1): Contender. Horse has only misses the exacta once in 9 starts.

Selections: 1 – 8 – 2 – 9

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 11

Post Time: 5:39 PM ET; Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes $1000k; 1 1/8 M Turf; Field of 12 runners.

• #1 INTEGRATION (4-1): Top Pick. Frankie gets aboard a grade 1 places horse.

• #7 RUNNING BEE (5-1): Contender. Chad Brown with a consistent turf runner who last won the grade 3 Tampa Bay.

• #10 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS (9-2): Contender. Grade 1 winner going without Lasix which was the winning formula in the Pegasus Turf.

• #2 GOLD PHOENIX (10-1): Underneath in Verticals. Last 2 figures are strong but earned at extended distances.

Selections: 1 – 7 – 10 – 2

The 151st Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Picks – Race 12

Post Time: 6:57 PM ET; Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve $5000k; 1 1/4 M Dirt; Field of 21 runners.

• #8 JOURNALISM (3-1): Best bet of the card. Best figure in the field and unbeaten at 2 turns. Figures a perfect trip. Bet today’s best bet with industry leading rebates on BetOnline.

• #7 LUXOR CAFE (15-1): Contender. Out of Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh on the 10 year anniversary of his historic run.

• #1 CITIZEN BULL (20-1): Contender. Two year old champ has been working up a storm.

• #17 SANDMAN (6-1): Contender. Jose Ortiz rode this one to his career best and returns here.

Selections: 8 – 7 – 1 – 17

Kentucky Derby After Card

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 13

Post Time: 8:00 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $127k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 16 runners.

• #11 PATCH ADAMS (5-2): Top Pick. This horse was thought to be a Derby talent. Plans change, but this horse nearly set the track record at Saratoga.

• #14 BIG TRUZZ (9-2): Contender. A step forward in the 2nd start would make this one a major player.

• #9 ROMANESQUE (5-1): Contender. 2nd in a grade 2 last out. A return to the debut makes this one tough.

• #8 TOUCHY (6-1): Contender. Improving figures with a track record of running races fast enough to win this one.

Selections: 11 – 14 – 9 – 8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 14

Post Time: 8:33 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $120k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 14 runners.

• #12 PURSUITNEVERSLEEPS (3-1): Top Pick. Debut effort makes this one the horse to beat. Any improvement and they’re all running for second.

• #13 LAMBO (5-1): Contender. Asmussen is 25% cutting back to a sprint.

• #14 MAINSTREAM (7-2): Contender. Productive debut for a top flight trainer.

• #5 ADVANCED SPIRIT (5-1): Contender. Improved second time out with the ability to run to this level.

Selections: 12 – 13 – 14 – 5

Continuing Kentucky Oaks and Derby Coverage

Betting News will continue to cover all the action from Churchill Downs. Check back throughout the week for full card analysis of Thurby, Kentucky Oaks, and the Derby.

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