Churchill Downs Picks- Derby Track Returns (4/26/2025)

The site of the Kentucky Derby returns on Saturday when Churchill Downs runs their first card of the season. @HandcappingT3 has your Churchill Downs picks for the entire card.

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Full Card Analysis

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Churchill Downs Picks – Race 1

Post Time: 5:00 PM ET; Claiming $45k; 1 M Dirt; Field of 11 runners

• #7 SYNTHESIS (7-2): Prime Win Player. Comes in with solid form. Stamina to outlast the competition.

• #8 HOODLUM (3-1): Contender. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Like this one if a stretch duel ensues.

• #5 PERUVIAN LUCKY (5-1): Worth a look. Previous success in similar race types. Has experience at this level.

• #1 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS (4-1): Fringe Contender. Ran at this level last out. Competitive enough in recent efforts.

Selections: 7 – 8 – 5 – 1

The Plays

• Win: #7 at 2-1 or better
• Exacta: 7/1,5,8
• Trifecta: 7/5,8/1,4,5,8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 2

Post Time: 5:28 PM ET; Allowance Optional Claiming $141k; 1 M Turf; Field of 7 runners

• #5 MISSION OF JOY (9-5): Prime Win Player. Stamina to outlast the competition. Looks good based on the 92 speed rating which is among the top in the group.

• #7 NO MO CANDY (2-1): Fringe Contender. Stamina to be in the mix late. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.

• #4 JUSTIFIABLE BELLE (3-1): Worth a look. Could wear these ones down late. Previous success in similar race types.

• #2 NEVERWALKALONE (10-1): Fringe Contender. Can compete from a speed figure standpoint.

Selections: 5 – 7 – 4 – 2

The Plays

• Win: #5 at 7-5 or better
• Exacta: 5/2,4
• Trifecta: 5/2,4/2,4,7

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 3

Post Time: 5:56 PM ET; Starter Allowance $62k; 7 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners

• #7 CREATIVE QUALITY (5-2): Prime Win Player. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #1 CERVARO DELLA SALA (3-1): Contender. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Should take a liking to the race shape.

• #2 BOLT ON THE ROCKS (5-1): Contender. Not likely to be short in the stretch.

• #3 NEXT UP (7-2): Fringe Contender. May be getting a weaker field than last out. Race conditions fit this one well.

Selections: 7 – 1 – 2 – 3

The Plays

• Win: #7 at 8-5 or better
• Exacta Key Box: 7/1,2
• Trifecta: 7/1,2/,1,2,3,4,6,8

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 4

Post Time: 6:26 PM ET; Allowance $127k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 7 runners

• #6 SUNDANCE FEATURE (2-1): Top pick. Looks good based on the 94 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #3 SAM’S TREASURE (3-1): Major Player. Demonstrated success under similar conditions.

• #4 OUTRAGEOUSLY (12-1): Contender. Potentially ready to hit a top number. Previous success in similar race types.

• #5 TWIRL AROUND (7-2): Fringe Contender. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.

Selections: 6 – 3 – 4 – 5

The Plays

• Win: #6 at 8-5 or better
• Exacta Box: 3,4,6

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 5

Post Time: 6:57 PM ET; Claiming $58k; 1 1/16 M Dirt; Field of 9 runners

• #4 CAROLO RAPIDO (5-2): Prime Win Player. Race may setup for this runner. Decent form of late.

• #2 MUCHO MOJO (4-1): Contender. Seems to be up against the right competition. Looks fast enough off previous efforts.

• #6 FORGE IN FIRE (7-2): Worth a look. Has experience at this level. Not likely to be short in the stretch.

• #7 EVENING NEWS (5-1): Fringe Contender. Spicer is the leading trainer in the standings.

Selections: 4 – 2 – 6 – 7

The Plays

• Win: #4 at 8-5 or better
• Exacta: 4/2,5,6,7
• Trifecta: 4/2,6/2,5,6,7

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 6

Post Time: 8:04 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $67k; 6 1/2 F Dirt; Field of 12 runners

• #4 TAPAKENA (4-1): Top pick. Strong early pace figs. Race sets up perfectly.

• #3 HOLSTER (9-2): Major Player. Johnston is a good bet at the meet. Potentially cycling to a top performance.

• #5 LEMON SOHN (12-1): Contender. Could jump up in the figures and be dangerous. Has been running well enough recently.

• #2 SHADOW COAST (5-1): Contender. Ran at this level last out.

Selections: 4 – 3 – 5 – 2

The Plays

• Win: #4 at 2-1 or better

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 7

Post Time: 8:37 PM ET; Maiden Special Weight $92k; 1 1/4 M Dirt; Field of 8 runners

• #2 PLAZA CUE (5-2): Top pick. Looks good based on the 81 speed rating which is among the top in the group. Race sets up perfectly.

• #4 CHURNING BERNI (4-1): Major Player. Likely to get forward position. May be able to take advantage of the pace.

• #5 KISS ME AGAIN (7-2): Contender. Not likely to be short in the stretch. Has been running well enough recently.

• #8 VINO TIEMPO (5-1): Fringe Contender. Could be ready to hit a peak performance.

Selections: 2 – 4 – 5 – 8

The Plays

• Win: #2 at 9-5 or better
• Win: #4 at 4-1 or better
• Exacta Box: 2,4,5
• Daily Double: 2,4/2,3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 8

Post Time: 9:09 PM ET; Claiming $76k; 1 1/16 M Turf; Field of 14 runners

• #3 FAIRE PLAISIR (8-1): Top pick. Love the heart this one shows in a fight.

• #2 TALENT SHOW (6-1): Longshot play of the day. Demonstrated success under similar conditions. Expected to maintain its energy reserves into the final stretch. Bet today’s live longshot on MyBookie.

• #1 SMOOTH WAVES (7-2): Contender. Potential to kick home late.

• #5 SWEET VOYAGE (15-1): Fringe Contender. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.

Selections: 3 – 2 – 1 – 5

The Plays

• Win: #3 at 2-1 or better
• Exacta Box: 1,2,3
• Pick 3: 1,2,3/1,2,6/3

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 9

Post Time: 9:40 PM ET; Roxelana Stakes presented by LG&E and KU $200k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 8 runners

• #2 SANDY BOTTOM (5-2): Top pick. Proven competitor at this configuration.

• #1 NON VIOLENCE (9-2): Major Player. Seems to be up against the right competition. Good race flow for this runner.

• #6 HARBOR SPRINGS (3-1): Major Player. Could jump up in the figures and be dangerous.

• #3 LADY MOSCATO (10-1): Contender. Competitive enough in recent efforts. Shouldn’t be disadvantaged by the flow of the race.

Selections: 2 – 1 – 6 – 3

The Plays

• Win: #2 at 5-2 or better
• Win: #1 at 5-2 or better
• Exacta Box: 1,2
• Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,6/1,2,3,6

Churchill Downs Picks – Race 10

Post Time: 10:10 PM ET; Maiden Claiming $72k; 6 F Dirt; Field of 10 runners

• #3 EVAN ON EARTH (7-5): Best bet of the card. Strong early pace figs. Stamina to outlast the competition. Bet today’s best bet with industry-leading rebates on BetOnline.

• #8 SHEPHERD (9-2): Fringe Contender. Potentially cycling to a top performance.

• #9 SERGEANT CAPPS (8-1): Worth a look. Has experience at this level.

• #7 WHERE Y’AT (15-1): Fringe Contender. Ran at this level last out. Competitive enough in recent efforts.

Selections: 3 – 8 – 9 – 7

The Plays

• Win: #3 at 6-5 or better
• Exacta: 3/7,8,9
• Trifecta: 3/7,8,9/7,8,9

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